850
FXUS65 KPUB 181115
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot again most of plains today, HEAT Advisories in effect TODAY.

- Cooling outflow boundary near certain today (90%) pushing across
the Pikes Peak Region during the ~2 to ~3 pm time period; good
chance (~60%) of storms mid/late afternoon PPR (Isolated storms
possible earlier).

- Strong outflow winds likely with any thunderstorms later
  today, especially over the plains.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances greatly increase on Monday, with
some strong to severe storms possible.

- Daily showers and storms continue through the rest of this
  week. Temperatures will warm a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Currently...

Sat pix imgy at 2 AM was showing mostly clear skies over a majority
of the forecast area. The only exception was along the CONTDVD
region were skies were mostly cloudy and showers over the west slope
were steadily decreasing. Ambient temps at 2 am were still very warm
over the lower elevations with 70s to lower 80s noted. Valleys and
mtns were much cooler with readings in teh 50s and 60s.

Next 24 hours...

It will be hot once again today, but relief is on the way.

The overall general pattern shows a mid level ridge axis stretching
from eastern MT southward to eastern NM. just west of this ridge
axis guidance was showing an area of higher precipitable water
values, and this area of mid level moisture will push east today
over the region associated with a weak disturbance moving through
the mid level flow. This system will allow an area of low pressure
to develop over NW KS by early afternoon. Areas west through south
of this low will be quite warm and hot, with westerly sfc winds and
temps in the 90s to L100s. North of this feature, dwpts were quite
high and temps were noticeably cooler.

By early to mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and push east. There is a good
chance that showers/stormy may develop as early as 1-2 pm over the
Teller county region and push east, and an outflow boundary is
likely going to push across the El Paso county region during the mid
afternoon time period. Given all of the outdoor activities occurring
over Pikes Peak Region (PPR) today, this outflow will bring cooling
relief to the PPR area. Confidence in this boundary is very high,
but the exact timing is still somewhat uncertain. This boundary will
act as a double edge sword in that it will bring cooler air to the
area during the mid day time period, but it may also bring STRONG
GUSTY WINDS to the PPR.

Reviewing high res ensemble guidance (HREF), it appears the best
timing of the boundary moving across the greater COS area will be
around the 2-3 pm time period. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible around the time of the boundary pushing across. I should
note that _ALL_ SPC HREF members at 2 pm show echoes of varying
intensity over the El paso county region; these echoes intensify
over the PPR as the afternoon progresses.

For the rest of the plains, the outflow will push southeastward and
should move across the Pueblo area during the 4-6 pm time frame and
reach the La Junta area around 6-7 pm, and will continue across the
plains the rest of this evening.

This boundary will initiate storms as it moves east this late
afternoon and into the evening hours. Some of these storms will be
strong and one or two may be severe, with winds being the main
concern. The best chance for the stronger storms will be over the
far eastern plains, especially across the greater Kiowa county
region.

Temps in the COS area will likely reach the U80s to L90s once again,
but the impacts may be less as more clouds are expected today and
they will form relatively early in the afternoon (HREF aviation data
shows a good chance of mid level deck forming during the 1-2 pm time
period). The boundary pushing across will significantly cool the temps
down once it pushes across the region. For the rest of the plains
along the lowe Ark Rvr valley, temps around 100 to 104 are likely
before the cooling outflow boundary pushes across. There will be a
chance of some precip over a good part of the plains this evening,
however the far southeast plains will likely remain dry.

As for the mountains today into this evening...the overall best
chance of rain will be across the CONTDVD region and extending east
into the greater Fremont county region and into the higher
elevations of the PPR. Storms elsewhere across the higher terrain
will be more scattered

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The upper-level ridge will remain firmly in place through most of
this week, slowly shifting eastwards. Along with the slight shift in
the upper pattern, ample monsoon moisture will move into our area,
with PWATs far above normal ranges on Monday. This, coupled with
moist post-frontal upslope over the plains, as well as a shortwave
disturbance passing by aloft, will all result in widespread showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Current model
consensus is for convection to fire along the mountains mid-late
afternoon before pushing east-southeast. Over the plains, 30+ knots
of bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will allow for the
intensification of thunderstorms, with several deterministic models
resolving a large convective cluster. Storms will move over I-25 and
push southeast fairly quickly, and could give us a variety of
impacts. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be our primary
concerns due to the high amounts of available moisture and the
widespread coverage of convection. However, some stronger storms
could produce large hail and damaging winds as well, especially with
that much CAPE and shear in play.

Moisture will remain in place for Tuesday, leading to another round
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, while a vast
majority of the coverage will be over the higher terrain, some
storms may drift east onto the I-25 corridor once again. Locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding over vulnerable areas will be our
main concerns once again. Over the far eastern plains, models have
very limited precipitation coverage, with soundings showing a decent
cap in place. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be in
the mid-80s to low-90s across most the CWA.

The upper-level high will start to shift east through the rest of
the work week, with flow over our region becoming more
southwesterly. Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue,
with most of the moisture being confined to the Continental Divide.
At the same time, high temperatures will warm a few degrees, with
some areas over the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees. Model
solutions start to diverge as we approach next weekend, but hint at
an upper-level low moving onto the west coast, which could bring a
more significant shift to our general pattern closer to the end of
this long-term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Scattered thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds will be the
main concern for this forecast period. Showers and tsra will be
possible at all 3 sites this afternoon. Storms are expected to
form earlier than normal at KCOS, with gusty outflow winds
likely be mid afternoon. Gusty outflow winds are expected at
KPUB by late afternoon or early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
COZ084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH