195
FXUS65 KPUB 080520
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
  across the southeast plains.

- Hottest days of the extended forecast period will be Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the
  week and through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Currently...High pressure aloft remains across the Desert SW and the
southern US, while an upper disturbance crosses the Midwest. LLVL
moisture has been firmly in place across the plains today, but
latest obs are showing some drier air now filtering in with
dewpoints in Canon City and northern El Paso County dropping into
the 30s. Temps have warmed into the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the plains as of 2 PM.

Tonight...Another day, another round of potential severe weather.
The tail end of an upper disturbance crossing the Midwest is
trailing back across northeastern CO, providing the trigger to tap
into available moisture and instability for stronger to severe
storms to develop across the plains this afternoon and evening, and
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of CO, WY,
NE and KS until 9 PM. The southern edge of this watch box dips down
across El Paso and Kiowa counties, and though much of the severe
activity is expected to remain north of the Palmer Divide, a few
severe storms will be possible, with the main threats expected to be
strong outflow gusts of 60 to possibly 70 mph, and 1 to 2 inch
diameter hail. Hi-res models are indicating 1400-1600j/kg of CAPE
across the SE plains, and 40 kts of bulk shear. Convection is
expected to linger through the evening, but models are indicating
activity diminishing by midnight. Isolated convection over the
higher terrain and valleys further west are expected to diminish
soon after sunset. Plan on overnight low temps in the 40s to around
50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Tuesday...The upper high across the southern US will start to slowly
push to the north, with the high center nearing the Four Corners.
Another warm day is on tap, with near-normal temps climbing into the
80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains.
There is enough moisture lurking about for isolated convection to
fire once again, with the best CAPE and shear lingering closer to
the KS border, and SPC has brought the Marginal area for severe
storms back west to th eastern mts. However, feel that the highest
probability for a stronger storm will be along the eastern border,
and the SPC outlook may retreat slightly. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For part of the midweek period, active
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, ridging will be in place over the region. While
subsidence will be in place with this feature, diurnal upsloping,
along with forcing along any boundaries, is expected to be in place.
With some forcing mechanisms, and residual moisture in place from
previous day`s convection, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
blossom late each afternoon and persist through the evening hours,
before finally dissipating during the overnight hours. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest along and east of
the eastern mountains, where moisture content will be best. Like the
past several days, a couple of strong to severe storms will be
possible each day, particularly Tuesday evening, with wind gusts
around 60 mph being the primary hazard given high bases and large
DCAPE values, though frequent lightning, hail, and periods of heavy
rain will also be possible with any stronger storms. Otherwise,
periods of increased cloud cover are anticipated during the
afternoon and evening hours, with relatively light winds expected
through this period. For temperatures, above seasonal values are
expected for much of south central and southeastern Colorado.

Thursday - Sunday: For the late half of the week and through the
weekend, active weather continues for south central and southeastern
Colorado, though with a pattern change. The aforementioned ridge in
place will flatten Thursday, with westerly to northwesterly flow
prevailing over the area after. This pattern will bring a slight
increase in forcing, though richer moisture will still remain mostly
limited to the eastern plains. Still, with the uptick in forcing,
and what moisture is in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are
still anticipated, with the greatest coverage remaining along the
mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond all of that, winds
are expected to become more breezy given the increased flow
overhead, along with the daily increase in afternoon and evening
cloud cover. As for temperatures, Thursday and Friday will be the
warmest days, with above seasonal temperatures expected. Saturday
and Sunday a cool down back to around seasonal is anticipated given
a cold front passage late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Upper level ridging continues to build into the Rockies, with
drier air expected to move into the area through the taf period.
This will lead to less expected shower and thunderstorm activity
and VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS and generally
light diurnal wind regimes over the next 24 hours. There will
continue to be isolated storms developing over the higher
terrain Tuesday afternoon, however there is too low of a chance
for these storms to move across the terminals to include in the
tafs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW