Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
116 FXUS65 KPUB 130308 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 908 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible once again over plains tomorrow afternoon. - Drier and warmer through the end of the work week. - Increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms again for the late weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Latest high res models keep greatest thunderstorm coverage across northeast sections of the plains through midnight with the possibility that the axis of more intense storms stays just north of Kiowa county. With stabilization elsewhere have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for all but Kiowa county. With some margin for error on the southward extent of the linear segment moving through east central CO will keep Kiowa county in the Watch for a couple more hours. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Currently... Isolated thunderstorms were developing region-wide over the fcst area at 2 pm. Best overall coverage was up on the north side of the Pikes peak region and over the San Juans pushing into the San Luis Valley. A look at the SPC Meso page shows that 20 to 30 knots of deep shear was noted over all of the plains and adjacent S mtns along with Sfc based CAPE values of 1000 to 4000 Joules. The best CAPE was noted over far SE CO plains and was advecting northwestward. Rest of Today into Tonight... Main concern is strong storms developing over the region and they will be capable of rainfall that could produce flash flooding along with marginally severe weather. Greatest threat for heavy rain will generally be over northern El Paso county, Crowley county and especially Kiowa county. Early this afternoon a theta-e maximum was advecting northwestward across Baca county, and this unstable air will continue to advect north and westward during this afternoon. Instability was increasing (per above discussion), as CAPE values were between 1000 and 4000 Joules (most unstable far southeast) and shear values over the far eastern plains were in the 20 to 30 knt range. A disturbance (per water vap imgy) over the 4 corners region will continue to move east, and this will allow thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity over the plains as the afternoon progresses. Based on latest data, the best chance for heavy rain along the I-25 corridor will be between 5 and 8 pm, with the heavy rain pushing east-northeast over the eastern plains during the evening hours. Storms should end late this evening over most areas, but CONTDVD region could see occasional showers and storms throughout the overnight hours. Some areas of low clouds could be over the plains early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow... Coverage of storms tomorrow is expected to be somewhat less than what will happen today as a bit drier air start to move into the region. Additionally, temps tomorrow will be about 1 to 3 F warmer than todays max temps. Additionally, the storms will likely initiate a bit later in the day as compared to today. Nonetheless, we will once again see a threat of marginally severe storms (with wind being the main threat) and more localized heavy rain over the entire region. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Moderate westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region through the end of the work week, which will start to scour out and then keep the monsoonal moisture plume well south of the area through the end of the work week. There looks to be enough lift and moisture associated with a passing embedded wave across the Northern Rockies on Wednesday to support scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the best coverage expected across the higher terrain and generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor. By Thursday and continuing into the early weekend, operational and ensemble data indicate below seasonal moisture in place across the Central Rockies, as upper level ridging builds back across the region. The latest operational GFS is the most aggressive in bringing back monsoonal into western Colorado by Saturday, where as the rest of the guidance keeps the plume south and west of the area through Saturday. With that said, should see a downward trend in daily convection, with mainly isolated high based showers over the higher terrain for the end of the work week and into the early weekend. With the decreased moisture and convection, temperatures will warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs well into the 90s across the Plains once again. The increased temperatures and decreased moisture, combined with moderating westerly flow aloft, will lead to increasing fire danger across the region into the weekend as well. By Sunday and continuing into early next week, model data does support increasing available moisture within southwesterly flow aloft, as the upper high slowly shifts south and east of the Central Rockies. This will again lead to a slow increase in coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms areawide, with a slow decrease in temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 357 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Thunderstorms could impact the terminals through 03z with brief MVFR cigs/vis from +TSRA. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kts and small hail could occur at KCOS or KPUB if a stronger storm impacts those areas though this is looking less likely as the focus for storms shift east of the terminals with time. There is a low end potential for some IFR conditions with stratus and fog at KCOS, though latest model guidance suggest it should clear by 10-11z if it does occur. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with another round of thunderstorms possible at the terminals after 21z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ095-096. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT