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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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062 FXUS65 KPUB 130605 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1205 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible once again over plains tomorrow afternoon. - Drier and warmer through the end of the work week. - Increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms again for the late weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Rain showers and thunderstorms are moving east out of the area and weakening while doing so. Given this, the Flash Flood Watch has been allowed to expire for the remaining areas of Kiowa County. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Currently... Isolated thunderstorms were developing region-wide over the fcst area at 2 pm. Best overall coverage was up on the north side of the Pikes peak region and over the San Juans pushing into the San Luis Valley. A look at the SPC Meso page shows that 20 to 30 knots of deep shear was noted over all of the plains and adjacent S mtns along with Sfc based CAPE values of 1000 to 4000 Joules. The best CAPE was noted over far SE CO plains and was advecting northwestward. Rest of Today into Tonight... Main concern is strong storms developing over the region and they will be capable of rainfall that could produce flash flooding along with marginally severe weather. Greatest threat for heavy rain will generally be over northern El Paso county, Crowley county and especially Kiowa county. Early this afternoon a theta-e maximum was advecting northwestward across Baca county, and this unstable air will continue to advect north and westward during this afternoon. Instability was increasing (per above discussion), as CAPE values were between 1000 and 4000 Joules (most unstable far southeast) and shear values over the far eastern plains were in the 20 to 30 knt range. A disturbance (per water vap imgy) over the 4 corners region will continue to move east, and this will allow thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity over the plains as the afternoon progresses. Based on latest data, the best chance for heavy rain along the I-25 corridor will be between 5 and 8 pm, with the heavy rain pushing east-northeast over the eastern plains during the evening hours. Storms should end late this evening over most areas, but CONTDVD region could see occasional showers and storms throughout the overnight hours. Some areas of low clouds could be over the plains early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow... Coverage of storms tomorrow is expected to be somewhat less than what will happen today as a bit drier air start to move into the region. Additionally, temps tomorrow will be about 1 to 3 F warmer than todays max temps. Additionally, the storms will likely initiate a bit later in the day as compared to today. Nonetheless, we will once again see a threat of marginally severe storms (with wind being the main threat) and more localized heavy rain over the entire region. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Moderate westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region through the end of the work week, which will start to scour out and then keep the monsoonal moisture plume well south of the area through the end of the work week. There looks to be enough lift and moisture associated with a passing embedded wave across the Northern Rockies on Wednesday to support scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the best coverage expected across the higher terrain and generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor. By Thursday and continuing into the early weekend, operational and ensemble data indicate below seasonal moisture in place across the Central Rockies, as upper level ridging builds back across the region. The latest operational GFS is the most aggressive in bringing back monsoonal into western Colorado by Saturday, where as the rest of the guidance keeps the plume south and west of the area through Saturday. With that said, should see a downward trend in daily convection, with mainly isolated high based showers over the higher terrain for the end of the work week and into the early weekend. With the decreased moisture and convection, temperatures will warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs well into the 90s across the Plains once again. The increased temperatures and decreased moisture, combined with moderating westerly flow aloft, will lead to increasing fire danger across the region into the weekend as well. By Sunday and continuing into early next week, model data does support increasing available moisture within southwesterly flow aloft, as the upper high slowly shifts south and east of the Central Rockies. This will again lead to a slow increase in coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms areawide, with a slow decrease in temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Patchy MVFR stratus has developed across portions of the Pikes Peak region and will be possible at the KCOS terminal through 12z. KPUB could also see some MVFR stratus develop after midnight though confidence in occurrence is lower at this point. Stratus should dissipate in the early morning. Otherwise, another round of thunderstorms will be possible at all three terminals on Tuesday with greatest likelihood at KALS and KCOS. Storms will be a little more hit or miss for KPUB but all three terminals will likely see erratic winds from thunderstorm outflows Tuesday afternoon with storms clearing to the east by 02-03z. Stronger storms on Tuesday could produce brief MVFR conditions with +TSRA and localized gusts up to 45 kts should a stronger storm impact the terminals. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...SIMCOE SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT