109
FXUS65 KPUB 132044
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible early this
  evening, before activity shifts into northeastern Colorado after
  sunset.

- Generally weaker and more isolated storms expected on Wednesday,
  with a low risk of a stronger storm near the KS border late afternoon.

- Drier and warmer through the end of the work week with increasing
  coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms again for the late weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Currently...Convection a little slow to get going this afternoon as
leftover cloudiness has held back surface heating somewhat, though
as of 230 pm, storms were finally developing along the srn I-25
corridor and eastward across Las Animas County. Additional storms
were also developing along the Continental Divide back toward
Monarch Pass and across the San Luis Valley.

Late Afternoon/Tonight...Given CAPE above 1000 j/kg across much of
the area, expect storms to continue to slowly increase, though
several CAMS (including HRRR/RAP) show a relative minimum of
instability over the Arkansas Valley east of Pueblo, with srn I-25
convection weakening as it moves north. Better forcing/upper wave
then rotates n-ne along the Continental Divide late this afternoon,
with enhanced upward motion spreading across the Pikes Peak Region
into northeast Colorado this evening. As a result, may see a quick
burst of convection over Teller/El Paso Counties 23z-02z, before
activity shifts into northeast Colorado. By late evening, CAMs
suggest storms mainly north and east of the CWA, though will need to
watch the far ern plains (especially Kiowa County) where outflows
could spark some stronger storms along the wrn edge of pool of deep
instability in KS. By midnight, still some showers/weak storms
lingering along the Divide, then activity ends and skies tend to
clear toward sunrise Wed.

Wednesday...PWAT decreases(values falling below an inch over all but
the far ern plains) across the area, as upper trough moves through
the nrn Rockies and flow across CO trends toward a drier wly
direction. As a result, expect less in the way of convection Wed
afternoon, with most activity limited to the nrn half of the area
where forcing looks slightly better. Still could see a stronger
storm near the KS border, where deeper instability lingers and
SWODY1 shows a marginal risk. Max temps look little changed at most
locations, with perhaps a slight upward drift of a degf or two over
the mountains as sunshine will be more prevalent than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

No big changes to the ongoing forecast for the end of the week and
the early weekend, as operational and ensemble data continue to indicate
below seasonal moisture in place across the Central Rockies, as upper
level ridging builds back across the region. With that said, we will
see a downward trend in daily convection, with mainly isolated high
based showers over the higher terrain for Thursday through Saturday.
With the decreased moisture and convection, temperatures will warm back
to above seasonal levels, with highs well into the 90s expected across
the Plains and mainly in the 60s to the lower 80s across the higher
terrain. The increased temperatures and decreased moisture, combined
with moderating westerly flow aloft, will lead to increasing fire danger
across the region into the weekend as well.

By Sunday and continuing into early next week, model data does support
increasing available moisture within southwesterly flow aloft, as the
upper high slowly shifts south and east of the Central Rockies. This will
again lead to a slow increase in coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms areawide, with temperatures remaining at to slightly
above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

At KALS, vcts 20z-02z, with erratic/gusty winds the main storm
hazard. VFR overnight into Wed, with only very isolated
convection expected Wed afternoon.

At KPUB and KCOS, vcts at both sites 21z-03z, with tempo tsra
and a brief period of MVFR vis possible as stronger storms move
through 22z-02z. VFR overnight with convective debris clouds
slowly diminishing into Wed morning. Lesser chance for
convection Wed afternoon as air mass begins to dry out.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN