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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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014 FXUS65 KPUB 140955 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 355 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A couple may become strong to severe this evening north of Highway 50 on the Plains. - Highs today in the 80s and 90s for the lower elevations. - Dry for most Thursday and Friday, with isolated mountain showers and storms possible. - Rain showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage saturday through Tuesday, especially along the Continental Divide. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Currently...overall, quiet conditions exist early this morning across much of southern Colorado. A few mountain observations over the San Juans are reporting light precipitation, which lines up well with IR satellite imagery enhancements over southwest Colorado. This is along the trailing edge of our upper disturbance lined up for today. Much drier air over Utah is beginning to push east into western Colorado. Temperatures remain mild across the Plains with mostly 60s to lower 70s so far this morning. A few additional degrees of cooler are expected by daybreak. Today...an upper shortwave embedded in the westerly flow is forecast to track from western Colorado into northeast Colorado through this afternoon. With a more northerly track, much of today`s convection looks to remain across northern portions of the warning area. Expect shower and thunderstorm development by midday from the La Garita, north into the Central Mountains, then spreading east as the upper wave tracks across northern Colorado. Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Pikes Peak Region and Palmer Divide by mid to late afternoon, with better activity north of our area. Drier air will begin to work east behind the upper shortwave, which will limit shower and thunderstorm development for southern portions of the area. That being said, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible over the Eastern Mountains this afternoon. The overall threats from thunderstorms look to be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding, lightning and gusty outflow winds. Temperatures will warm through the 80s and into the 90s across the lower elevations. Tonight...a surface low is forecast to develop this evening and track southeast from near Pueblo into Baca County. This will send a boundary south overnight as the surface low shifts southeast. North of the developing low, convection looks to develop this evening and slowly shift east through around 2 AM for areas along and north of HIghway 50. SBCAPE values will be near 1000 j/kg late this afternoon into this evening and 0-6km shear looks to be around 25 to 30 kts. This may be enough to produce one or two stronger storms this evening across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa Counties. Hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph may be possible with stronger storms. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours as upper ridging begins to build across western Colorado. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s across the Plains, with 40s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thursday - Friday: For the end of the week, relatively quiet weather is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Shortwave ridging/an expanding ridge will be in place across the region behind and exiting shortwave trough. This pattern will bring increased descent, along with drier air as the aforementioned shortwave trough scoured out better moisture. Given this, much of the area will remain dry during this timeframe, though an isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm will be possible along the mountains each afternoon. Any precipitation present though will dissipate during the evening hours. Looking at temperatures, Thursday will be cooler thanks to a minor cold front passage during Wednesday, bringing near to slightly below seasonal values. Friday starts to warm back up to around and slightly above seasonal values, as the ridge starts to quickly build. Saturday - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, an uptick in active weather is anticipated as a monsoon pattern returns. The ridge will continue to build over the area and while doing so, moisture will begin to stream into the feature and over the region. While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing and diurnal upsloping, in combination with the increased moisture, will allow for daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms to blossom. The greatest coverage of precipitation will be along and around the mountains, but especially the Continental Divide area, where moisture return will be greatest. Still, following a Summer pattern, any showers and storms present during the afternoon hours will dissipate during the evening as instability lessens. As for temperatures, the warming will slowly continue. Much of the area will warm to above seasonal values with the ridging in place. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal. A few light rain showers or thunderstorms are possible across the San Luis Valley this afternoon, but confidence in one occurring at the terminal is low. The main concern may be brief wind gusts from any outflows produced by thunderstorms. KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. At this time, it appears shower and thunderstorm activity should remain north of the terminal. Brief wind gusts may be possible this afternoon due to any storms to the north that produce outflow boundaries. A boundary will turn winds northerly overnight before weakening by Thursday morning. KCOS...VFR conditions through much of the next 24 hours. A couple of showers or thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon into early evening. Briefly reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty outflow winds may be possible. A boundary will arrive this evening turning winds northerly, weakening by Thursday morning. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY