113
FXUS65 KPUB 142039
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible this evening north
  of Highway 50 on the plains.

- Mostly dry and slightly warmer Thursday with only some
  isolated afternoon mountain thunderstorms.

- Drier and warmer into the weekend with increasing coverage of
  daily showers and thunderstorms again for the late weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Currently...As expected, convection is rather sparse this afternoon,
as air mass has dried considerably versus 24 hrs ago. Finally seeing
some isolated activity over nrn El Paso County as of 230 pm, as
stronger upward vertical motion over nrn CO brushes by. Mountains
appear significantly drier this afternoon, with only very
shallow/weak convection so far, as PWAT has dropped toward a half
inch and surface dewpoints have fallen at least 10 degf versus
yesterday at many locations.

Tonight...Mainly isolated convection expected this evening, with the
greatest chance for storms on the plains along and north of Highway
50 as Palmer Divide convection moves east. Could see a strong/severe
storm as activity approaches the KS border and encounters deeper
moisture/instability, especially Kiowa County. Most activity ends
around sunset, though at least a few CAMs, including the HRRR,
develop a second round of storms along the Arkansas River from La
Junta eastward beginning around midnight, persisting until early
morning Thu. This activity seem to be forced by a weak boundary
dropping south through the plains and modest pocket of instability
lingering across the lower Arkansas Valley. Will keep some low pops
in place to account for this possibility, mainly near the KS border.

Thursday...Even less in the way of convection expected as air mass
continues to dry under wly flow aloft. Will keep some low pops for
isolated mountain storms in place for the afternoon, though gusty
winds/brief lightning/sprinkles may be the best that most storms can
do given the set-up. On the plains, just enough moisture may linger
for some late day storms, though chances look better in the evening
after 00z, so won`t include any lower elevation pops for the
afternoon at this point. Given increased sun and continued drying,
expect max temps to drift upward a few degf at most locations, with
mid 90s becoming more widespread on the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Little change in the ongoing forecast of drier and warmer conditions
for the end of the work week into the early weekend, as model
data supports much drier and warmer air in place across the
Central Rockies under a building upper level ridge. With that
said, we will see a continued downward trend in daily convection,
with mainly isolated high based showers over the higher terrain
for Thursday through Saturday. There will, however, be a chance
of some nocturnal convection Thursday night into early Friday
morning across the far southeast Plains associated with the
expected development of a low level jet across the Colorado and
Kansas border. With the warmer air aloft and decreased moisture
and convection, temperatures will warm back to above seasonal
levels, with highs well into the 90s to around the century mark
expected across the Plains and mainly in the 60s to the lower
80s across the higher terrain.

By Sunday and continuing into the middle of next week, model data
continues to support increasing available moisture within southwesterly
flow aloft, as the upper high slowly shifts south and east of the
Central Rockies. This will again lead to a slow increase in coverage
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms areawide, with temperatures
remaining at to slightly above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Very little change to the previous 12Z TAF cycle at our
terminals. Started winds off a little lighter and a quicker
transition to south-southeast at KCOS/KPUB early afternoon.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal.  A
few light rain showers or thunderstorms are possible across the San
Luis Valley this afternoon, but confidence in one occurring at the
terminal is low.  The main concern may be brief wind gusts from any
outflows produced by thunderstorms.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  At this time, it
appears shower and thunderstorm activity should remain north of the
terminal.  Brief wind gusts may be possible this afternoon due to
any storms to the north that produce outflow boundaries.  A boundary
will turn winds northerly overnight before weakening by Thursday
morning.

KCOS...VFR conditions through much of the next 24 hours.  A couple
of showers or thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon into
early evening.  Briefly reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty
outflow winds may be possible.  A boundary will arrive this evening
turning winds northerly, weakening by Thursday morning.
Mozley/Heavener

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KM/GH