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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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993 FXUS65 KPUB 162341 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 541 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot on Saturday, with a slight upturn in thunderstorm chances over the mountains, mainly along the Continental Divide. - Monsoonal moisture returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Currently...Building upper ridge over the area today was suppressing convection at most locations, and only storms noted at mid-afternoon were over the OK Panhandle along a weak surface boundary which slipped through the plains overnight. Despite building heights/warming mid-levels, afternoon temps have lagged forecasts a few degf so far today, especially on the plains behind the front. Tonight...will keep some very low pops going this evening along the NM and OK border east of Trinidad, as HRRR hints at outflow from storms to the south potentially forcing a brief/windy storm through sunset. Elsewhere, expect mostly clear skies and seasonably mild overnight min temps. Tonight...Upper ridge continues to build across CO through the day, with axis drifting slowly eastward toward the KS border by evening. This set-up should allow at least a minor uptick in available moisture across the western half of CO, leading to the reappearance of afternoon thunderstorms, especially along the Continental Divide. Expect most activity to produce more wind than rain as low levels will be slow to moisten, with lightning the main hazard with most storms, especially over any higher exposed peaks. Temperatures Saturday will climb as heights rise, and maxes deep into the 90s to low 100s are likely on the plains, with 80s widespread over interior valleys and lower mountain zones. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Saturday Night and Sunday.. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday look to remain around 4 to 7 degrees above normal for most locations, which will give way to continued above normal temperatures for Sunday. Sunday is a bit of a transition day though, as models begin to bring a low onshore over the Pacific Northwest which will eventually push the high off to our southeast as we get into the beginning of next week. This will open up the monsoonal moisture tap over our region. For Sunday, models indicate that the beginning of this monsoonal moisture should start to work its way into the high country, as we remain situated along the northwestern periphery of the high. This setup could lead to the possibility of a few showers and storms pushing into the mountain adjacent plains through Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as well, though the best chances for moisture will remain over the mountains for Sunday. Daytime highs look to remain around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for Sunday, though we will see a slight decrease from expected temperatures on Saturday, especially over and near the mountains where convective cloud cover will help to keep us cooler through the hottest part of the day. Our far eastern plains could still see triple digits under mostly sunny skies, but the majority of the I-25 corridor should top out in the 90s, with mountain valleys in the 80s and higher terrain locations in the 70s. Monday Onwards.. By Monday, models indicate that we transition to a pattern of slightly above normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher terrain, thanks to the return of monsoonal moisture over the region. Ensembles, especially GEFS members, show a strong signal for PWAT anomalies exceeding the 100-140% range beginning Sunday and persisting all the way through next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light (mostly less than 10 kts) and diurnally influenced at all terminals. There is low confidence (less than 20 percent) of VCSH and possible VCTS at KPUB until 02Z. If these do occur, There could be strong outflows with abrupt wind changes and gusty winds associated with these, even if tstms do not move directly overhead. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...STEWARD