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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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628 FXUS65 KPUB 121548 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 948 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected across the region this afternoon and tonight. A few could become strong to severe across the Plains. - A few degrees cooler this afternoon. - Afternoon showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest coverage along and around the mountains. - Some storms may become strong to marginally severe Tuesday and Wednesday across the valleys and plains. - Drier Thursday and Friday, with showers and storms increasing in coverage again for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the forecast area. Collaboration between BOU along with HREF guidance indicates the potential for heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding will be possible over east central CO this afternoon and evening. If you take guidance as is, the greatest threat is Crowley and Kiowa counties, but given uncertainty with these events, included nearby adjacent counties. (If outflow pushes a bit south, then the US50 corridor over the plains will be under the gun for flash flooding). Plenty of moisture. along with the favorable jet dynamics will allow for thunderstorms to produce heavy rain later today over the region. /Hodanish && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows multiple waves embedded in westerly zonal flow across southern Colorado. One is current departing the Eastern Plains into Kansas, with any lingering convection ending by 4 AM. Weaker energy is moving out of the Central Mountains along the Highway 50 corridor with light precipitation dissipating as it moves east across Fremont County. Satellite imagery also shows a wave over far southwest Colorado, followed by another piece of energy across central Utah. Both look to impact our weather through the next 24 hours. Temperatures are quite mild, with mid 60s to lower 70s across the Plains. Moisture remains in place with elevated dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the Plains. This should keep the Plains weakly unstable through morning, with isolated showers possible, especially along the Highway 50 corridor through daybreak. Today...flat high pressure to the south will keep westerly zonal flow across southern Colorado through this afternoon. The embedded waves mentioned above will transit east across the state by this afternoon. Southeasterly surface flow will keep moisture pooled across the Plains, with widespread dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. SBCAPE values around 1000 j/kg along the I-25 corridor, rising to near 2000 j/kg near the Kansas border should allow for robust convection by this afternoon. Storms will initiate across the higher terrain by mid morning, then spread eastward into the I-25 corridor this afternoon. As storms move east, they will encounter an environment that should allow for strengthening. 0-6 km shear of 30 kts should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms, especially as they migrate east of I-25. Hail to 1.5 inches and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible on the Plains with stronger storms. Given the high PWAT values near 1.5 inches, storms will likely be efficient precipitation producers, with elevated risks of flash flooding on area burn scars and flood prone areas. Afternoon highs today will be slightly cooler, with mostly 80s across the Plains, and 70s over the San Luis Valley. Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, especially across the Plains. Most high-res model guidance has thunderstorms shifting east into Kansas around midnight tonight. Expect any severe risk to diminish as well as storms track eastward into Kansas. Across the Mountains, showers will likely continue through the overnight hours along the Continental Divide. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible through the evening hours. Overnight lows will fall off into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Mozley && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 348 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Tuesday - Wednesday: Active weather is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado for the first part of the midweek period. Southwesterly flow and a shortwave will prevail Tuesday, with a minor trough passage Wednesday. These features will bring heightened broad forcing and orographic forcing. Along with the forcing, moisture will remain in place across the region. With the rise in forcing and the moisture in place, daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the area, with the greatest coverage along and around the mountains. And while coverage of storms will be less across the valleys and plains, some storms may become strong to marginally severe during the mid afternoon to early evening hours, with severe wind gusts and large hail the primary hazards. With that all said though, as instability starts to wane during the evening hours, any showers and storms present are anticipated to dissipate. Looking at temperatures, a warm couple of days is expected. Much of the region will warm to around seasonal values for mid August, though storm outflows may help to keep some areas cooler during peak heating hours. Thursday - Sunday: The rest of the long term period will see a pattern "reset" as the monsoon flow reestablishes itself. Thursday and Friday, a ridge will slowly redevelop behind the aforementioned trough from earlier in the week. Moisture will become scoured out by that wave though, and given increased subsidence and no major forcing, drier conditions are expected, with mostly just isolated rain showers and thunderstorms along the mountains. Then during the weekend, the ridge is expected to continue to reorganize and start to pull better moisture northward again. This influx of moisture will increase precipitation chances for the area, with showers and storms rising in coverage, but especially around the Continental Divide area. Like most Summer days though, showers and storms are expected to dissipate during the evening hours as instability lessens. As for temperatures, a slight bump up is anticipated. With the ridge building, slightly above seasonal temperatures is expected for much of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 KALS...a few rain showers will remain possible across the San Luis Valley through morning with CIGS running 4 to 6 kft. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon, especially in the 20-00z time frame. Gusty outflow winds along with reduced CIGS and VIS will accompany any convection that moves across the terminal. A return to VFR conditions is expected by this evening. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions this morning with CIGS running around 10 to 11 kft. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at both terminals during the afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds along with reduced VIS and CIGS will accompany any storms that move across the terminals. Southeasterly flow overnight will likely lead to low stratus across the area, with both terminals seeing reduced CIGS into Tuesday morning. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ081-082-084>086-089-093-095>098. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY