981
FXUS65 KPUB 190912
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
312 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
greater I-25 corridor region later this afternoon and evening.

- Locally heavy rain capable of flooding problems will be possible
across parts of the region this afternoon and evening.

- Generally 4 to 8 degrees cooler today.

- Daily showers and storms continue through the rest of this week.
Temperatures will warm a bit.

- Potential pattern change this weekend, a new system could
  bring in some cooler air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Currently...

Variable cloudiness was noted over the region at 2 AM this morning.
most of the clouds were noted over the pare eastern plains. A few
light showers were noted with this activity.

It was moist over the plains early this morning. Most of the plains
had at least 50s dwpts with 60s to around 70F dwpts noted over the
far eastern plains. Lamar had a 70 dwpt at 1 AM. A subtle warm
frontal boundary was noted over the northern half of the Raton Mesa.
On the larger scale, a fairly impressive plume of monsoon moisture
was noted over southwest per water vapor imgy. and the brunt of this
moisture was advecting into the Centennial State.

A fairly stout jetstream was noted over S Calif extending northeast
into S NV and W UT. A subtle disturbance was noted over CA/NV and
this disturbance will come across SE CO during the 00 UTC time frame
later today. The combination of this disturbance and the favorable
low level environment should allow for a busy day in the weather
department as some severe storms will be possible along with heavy
rain.

Today into Tonight..

The main concern is for thunderstorms capable of producing localized
severe weather (winds and hail) and heavy rain. A nice theta-e axis
of low level instability will be pushing into SE CO today. This
along with the disturbance coming over the ridge will allow for
thunderstorms to develop over the Pikes Peak region today and move
generally southeast towards the La Junta region later this evening.
Analysis of point HREF soundings over the target area show favorable
cyclonic looping hodographs and deep CAPE with mean deep shear of 35
knts. These storms will be capable of large hail (golfballs) and
localized strong winds. The short lived mesocyclonic tornado threat
is low but not zero. Given the very moist low level atmosphere and
the advection of low level moisture, the storms will be capable of
localized heavy rain.

Per SPC HREF ensemble guidance, the greatest threat for severe
storms will be over El Paso, Pueblo, Crowley and Western Kiowa
counties.

Per DESI ensemble output and high res deterministic guidance, the
greatest threat for heavy rain will be over Teller, El Paso, eastern
Fremont, northern half of Pueblo, Crowley and western Kiowa
counties. At this time I do not plan on issuing any flash flood
highlights, but will make the upcoming day shift of the threat.

SPC and WPC has the above mentioned areas in slight risk for svr and
marginal risk for flash flooding respectively.

I would not be too surprised if we see a Mesoscale convective Vortex
feature develop over the southern half of Palmer Divide today.

The best chance for the impactful weather will be a few hours either
side of 00 UTC late today.

It will be several degrees cooler across the forecast area as
compared to yesterday.

The activity over the plains will decrease by late evening, although
we will still see the possibility of some late night showers over
the far eastern plains (especially Kiowa county). Clouds will likely
linger over the far eastern plains through the night. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Tuesday...

Convective activity will decrease a bit on Tuesday, as the upper
high sits to our south. Lingering monsoon moisture over the higher
terrain will give us another round of scattered afternoon showers
and storms. While a few storms may drift east onto I-25 later in the
afternoon/evening, the plains are expected to remain somewhat capped
and relatively dry. High temperatures will be similar to Monday,
with mid 80s-90s over most of the forecast area.

Wednesday Onwards...

Moisture will increase throughout the rest of the week, meaning
continued daily showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area.
The upper-level high will slowly shift south and east as a deep
upper low begins to move down into the Pacific Northwest. Southwest
flow will increase aloft starting Weds-Thurs, funneling more
moisture into the mountains and increasing precipitation coverage.
At this time, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be our main
impact concerns, especially over the burn scars. Meanwhile, the
plains are expected to remain a bit more dry with generally isolated
coverage, with steering flow pushing some storms eastward before
they dissipate. High temperatures will continue to be near or above
seasonal averages, with parts of the plains hitting the mid-90s to
around 100 degrees. The high valleys will be a bit cooler, with high-
70s to low-80s.

Our next pattern change will arrive late this week into the weekend,
as long-term guidance shows the upper low deepening into a broad
trough that moves inland. Model solutions really begin to diverge
around Saturday, with the GFS sending a faster-moving open trough
into our region, while the EC and Canadian both have a slower-moving
closed low just west of us. Either way, we can expect some cooler
and potentially drier air moving into our region sometime around
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with more widespread storms closer
to KCOS. VCSH will start at KALS tomorrow afternoon and last through
the end of this forecast period thanks to showers moving off of the
higher terrain. Thunderstorms will fire near KCOS and KPUB around 19-
21Z, first at KCOS. Overall, coverage near KCOS will be better and
precipitation at the terminal is more likely. However, all three TAF
sites could see gusty and erratic outflow winds close to 30
knots.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH