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FXUS65 KPUB 171725
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Today and Sunday.

- A tad cooler during the week-time period, overall best chance of
precip region-wide will likely be Monday afternoon/evening

- Mountains, especially interior mtns (CONTDVD) should see a chance
of afternoon and evening showers each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Currently...

Skies were predominantly clear over the region early this morning.
Temps over the lowe elevations were generally in the 70s with 60s
over the divides. Over the interior mtns it was in the 50s with 40s
mtns. Aloft, Zonal mid level flow was noted with modest ridging over
the UT/CO region.

Today and Tonight...

It will be rather warm on the plains with 90s most areas with a few
100s along the Ark Rvr region. Warmest temps will be out near Lamar
where reading will be the warmest, with readings in the lower 100s.
Valleys will see mid 80s with 50s and 60s mtns. As for precip,
overall best chance of pops will be over the CONTDVD region. Plains
will be dry through 00 UTC.

This evening, an isold shower cant be ruled out over the Palmer
Divide, otherwise plains will be dry. Showers along the CONTDVD
early this evening will gradually dissipate. Expect an
uncharacteristically warm night across teh plains wit lows in teh
60s to around 70F. 40s and 50s will occur over the mtns. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Overall, the mid level high through a good part of this period will
be centered just south-southeast of the region, generally over the TX
Phdl/NE New Mexico region. This will keep the region in modest
southwesterly flow. This pattern will be favorable for advecting
monsoonal moisture into the 4 corners region, and this will allow
for the continuation of showers and storms over our higher terrain
through this period. Temps will be hot on Sunday (We will see our
warmest day over the plains on this day, with readings along the Ark
Rvr in the 102 to 104 range). as for precip, we should see an
increase in pops over the mtns with some shower likely pushing off
onto the I-25 corridor region by late afternoon/evening. There is a
chance we may need some HEAT Highlights for the far eastern plains
on Sunday.

Monday, per ensemble guidance, should be the wettest day over the
entire region. Favorable deeper moisture advecting in the monsoonal
flow, favorable lower level upslope and a weak disturbance should
allow for likely pops in the mtns and sctd pops on the plains. We
could see some heavy rainers over the plains during the evening
hours Monday, and these storms could last into the early morning
hours of Tuesday over the plains.

From Tuesday onward, showers and thunderstorms will be possible over
the higher terrain each day, with a lesser chance over the plains.
One thing to note in the ensemble fields in the low level moisture
(sfc dwpts) are expected to remain modestly high, and this should
keep at least a chance of some pops over the entire area during this
period. Temps should warm up slightly, especially Wed and Thu, but
are not expected to be as warm as today and tomorrow. We may see a
bit of a cooling trend late in the week into next weekend.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds at KCOS and KPUB have
been slow to switch to the usual upslope this morning, but most
guidance suggests a shift back to s-se by 19z-20z. Overnight
and Sunday morning, winds will be light and diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN