895
FXUS65 KPUB 080944
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over the
southern San Luis Valley and its surrounding mountains - 1 inch hail
and 60 mph wind gusts are the main risks

- Temperatures increasing through the week.

- Several days of temperatures above 100F expected over the plains
from late week into the following week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

An upper level trough will continue to pass overhead throughout the
day today and it will spark thunderstorms over the central and
southern mountains, as well as the San Luis Valley this afternoon.
MUCAPEs over that region are around 800 to 1200 J/kg of MUCAPE, sfc-
6km shear ~30-40kts, near dry-adiabatic lapse rates. All HREF
members are hitting it pretty well. Main concerns will be a storm or
two that produce 1 inch hail and 60 MPH wind gusts. This is a fairly
rare instance (I don`t have the stats to say HOW rare) where the
mountain valleys have a severe risk and the plains do not.

Another cool day is expected over the plains and a fairly normal
temperature day is expected over the mountain and mountain valleys.
Expect high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s over the plains, and
the upper 60s to upper 70s over the mountain valleys. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s over the plains and the 40s over the
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

An increasingly hot and overall dry period is anticipated during
this long term period. Temperatures will start a few degrees below
seasonable values on Tuesday as highs will be in the 80s across most
of the plains and just below 80 in the large valleys. Wednesday we
will see seasonable temperatures while on Thursday temperatures
will be well into the 90 across a good part of the plains. by
Friday, and into teh weekend, and into next week temperatures are
expected to be in the 100s across a good part of the plains with
temps well into the 80s in the larger valleys.

As for precip, Plains are expected to be dry through the period.
Higher terrain will generally see high based isolated to scattered
storms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening time period.

The overall synoptic pattern looks very hot, especially from
Friday into early next week. A strong, near 600 DM, area of mid
level high pressure will be centered directly over Colorado during
the period. With this pattern, any monsoon moisture will be shunted
well to our west and over the top of the ridge, so it is likely be
be quite dry over the State. Although winds will be purely diurnal
driven (and light), fuels will be drying significantly during this
time period.

Into next week, the ridge flattens out some, but still the mid level
ridge axis will be over the 4 corners region and this will keep it
hot, with maybe an uptick in high based mtns storms.

For what its worth, we went 14 days in a row with temps at or above
100 degrees F in Pueblo back in 2012. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KALS,
KCOS, and KCOS. Thunderstorms are expected just to the south of
KALS, but if they develop a little further north, MVFR to IFR
conditions with gusty and erratic winds gusts would occur. The main
flow regime for KCOS and KPUB will be from the east-southeast
throughout the day.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SKELLY