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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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991 FXUS65 KPUB 192347 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 547 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through this evening across the eastern plains. - Another round of thunderstorms expected for Saturday though severe potential looks lower due to less shear. - Unseasonably cool and unsettled this weekend into early next week. - Some drying, especially across southeast Colorado, for the middle to end of next week, with temperatures warming back to near seasonal levels. && .UPDATE... Issued at 441 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Kiowa, Prowers, and Baca Counties through 11pm tonight. Storms are currently moving in from the north across the eastern plains as monsoon moisture is moved around the synoptic high to our southwest. CAMs are showing the potential for clusters of thunderstorms with strong, gusty outflow winds, which will be the main potential hazard for this evening along with some possible hail. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Upper trough across the Dakotas will continue dropping southward along the eastern periphery of the western U.S. upper high through the central plains this evening. Meanwhile, recycled monsoon moisture continues to circulate within the upper high over CO. The former feature is sending a cold front through the southeast plains with storms firing along this boundary across southern El Paso county as of 20z. Dew points to the north of the boundary in El Paso county have dropped off into the 40s and even upper 30s, while south of the boundary dew points remain in the 50s to around 60 across the far southeast plains. High res models continue to portray a line of storms becoming more organized across northeast CO/western KS dropping southward through the far eastern plains during the late afternoon and evening with the frontal boundary acting as the primary initial focus, then a secondary wave possible after 7 PM. Details are murky on the coverage and westward extent of stronger thunderstorms, but with upper 50s/lower 60 dew points maintaining across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties, this is where the higher CAPE is likely to linger with up to 1500 J/kg or a little better of MLCape. Deep layer shears will be running around 30-35 kts. As storms organize into linear cluster/MCS the storm risks will transition more towards damaging winds near the CO/KS border through the evening. Meanwhile, over the mountains and adjacent plains storms will be higher based as low level moisture mixes out some vs that of previous days. A heavy rain risk will be maintained as precipitable waters remain around 100-115% of normal. Burn scar flash flooding will be possible if storms impact these areas, otherwise gusty outflows up to 50 mph and some small hail will be possible with the embedded stronger cells. Front pushes through all of the southeast plains tonight with winds shifting around from the east on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with readings staying in the 80s for most areas across the plains, 70s to around 80 for the mountain valleys and 50s and 60s for the higher terrain. Thunderstorms will increase across the mountains again Saturday afternoon as weak perturbations continue to circulate within the upper high. Forcing looks weak compared to today, but afternoon heating should be sufficient for fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity once again. Mean Cape off HREF ranges from 500 to near 1000 J/kg however weaker deep layer shears under 30 kts should limit the overall severe threat. Still enough instability to suggest some small hail, and gusty winds up to 50 mph along with locally heavy rainfall. Burn scars will need to be monitored closely for a flash flood risk. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Latest ensemble and operational model data continues to support a cool and unsettled pattern across the region through Monday, as upper level ridging elongates across the Great Basin and Intermountain West, keeping unseasonably cool north to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies. With moisture in place (PWATS between 100-150 percent of normal), and bouts of increased uvv with embedded waves translating down the backside of the upper ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains, we will continue to see daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain, this weekend into early next week. With the cooler conditions, models indicate less instability with severe storm development being limited, however, with the available moisture in place and the potential for training storms, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible through the weekend. A few models continue to suggest a cold front, pushing south across Eastern Colorado Saturday night, could develop showers and storms across the region early Sunday morning, which could continue through the afternoon and evening. With the easterly low level upslope flow, Sunday remains to be the coolest days of the next week with highs well below late July levels in the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains, with 50s, 60s to lower 70s expected across the higher terrain. For Tuesday and beyond, model data continues to suggest the upper high will slowly slide south and east through the middle of next week and could be sliding into western Colorado by the end of next week. This will shift upper level flow to east to northeast across Eastern Colorado, with weak southerly flow developing across Western Colorado. The main weather signal is slowly warming conditions across the region with temperatures returning at to slightly above seasonal levels by the end of next week. Drier conditions look to develop across Eastern Colorado, while Western Colorado could see a slow increase in available moisture once again, keeping the best chances of daily storms along and west of the ContDvd for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 KALS: Showers will remain in the vicinity of the terminal through around 05Z tonight, with brief rain occuring at the terminal through 01Z or so. Winds will weaken overnight with VFR persisting into tomorrow, before showers return to the area close to 21Z. KCOS and KPUB: Showers and storms will remain in the area for several more hours this evening. Gusty outflow will be possible, but at this time any precipitation close to or over the terminals will be short-lived. Outflow winds could hit 25-30 knots with erratic wind directions, but confidence is currently not high enough in occurrence to include in the TAFs. Showers should dissipate and move on prior to 05-06Z. Some models are hinting at the chance for some increased cloud formation at the mid to low levels around 09Z, but cigs should remain in low VFR to high-end MVFR even if this occurs. Winds tomorrow afternoon will gain an easterly component with more showers and storms initiating off of the mountains by 18-21Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GARBEROGLIO SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO