271
FXUS65 KPUB 162029
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, initially over
the mountains followed by the eastern plains.

- Severe risk returns Wednesday, with an increased chance for
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-80%) over and
  near the higher terrain through the end of work week.

- Unseasonably cool and unsettled this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Currently...

Storms have already began popping up across the higher terrain, as
well as parts of El Paso County. Storms are moving at a decent speed
to the east-southeast and should continue to do so into this
evening. Cloud cover is scarce out east with near-60 dewpoints
across Highway 50. Still looks to be a decent setup for strong to
severe storms. Meanwhile, the front is a bit too broad to see within
the surface analysis data, but gusty surface winds denote the
presence of lift into the mountains. Parts of the front have likely
already arrived in our CWA.


Rest of Today and Tonight...

Showers and storms will continue to form through the rest of this
afternoon and into this evening, thanks to good upslope across the
plains coupled with the mid-level perturbation passing through the
flow aloft. Models are still in line with spreading precipitation
across the mountains before the mid-level flow pushes things onto
the plains. Looking at the SPC Mesoanalysis page, 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE and around 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear in places leave
us primed for some stronger thunderstorm development. With CAPE and
shear maximized closer to the CO-KS border, storms are still
expected to intensify as they move east. Risks for severe hazards,
including damaging outflow winds, 1+ inch hail, and heavy rain will
all increase accordingly over our eastern counties. As such, Slight
Severe Risk covers these areas on today`s SPC Convective Outlook.
Given how much moisture is in place as well, flash flooding will
definitely be on the table, specifically over burn scars and other
vulnerable areas.


Wednesday...

Cooler temperatures will blanket the area on Wednesday behind the
front, with highs only reaching into the 80s across most of our CWA.
Temps will also be kept down by lingering cloud cover and abundant
moisture. Aloft, the high pressure off to our southwest will
continue advecting in monsoonal moisture with persistent east-
southeast flow across the plains. The continued upslope flow will
allow for increased cloud cover and a westward progression of the
most unstable air. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will generally
increase Wednesday afternoon, with conditions supportive of
efficient rain producers. Showers and storms will form over the
higher terrain early in the afternoon before slowly moving off to
the southeast. Given the abundant moisture and easterly flow, while
various severe hazards are on the table, our biggest impact concern
at this time will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
over the burns scars and other vulnerable areas. The Spring Creek
and Oak Ridge burn areas will especially need to be watched closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged to become more
northerly through the end of the work week, as upper level ridging
across the Southern Rockies retogrades back across the Desert
Southwest. This will allow for an influx of available moisture as
subtropical moisture across the Desert Southwest circulates around
the upper high and into the Central Rockies. This, combined with
modest southerly return flow across the southeast Plains will lead
to PWATS of 100-150 percent of normal across the region through
the end of the work week. The available moisture, with strong
summer solar insolation and occasional disturbances within the flow
will lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across south
central and southeast Colorado through the end of the work week,
with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. With the
increased available moisture, storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, especially
for area burn scars and other susceptible areas and areas where
heavy rain has fallen in previous days. There will also the
potential for strong to severe storms across poritions of southeast
Colorado, dependant on amount of instablity and shear profiles.
Temperatures through the end of the work week look to be at to
slightly below seasonal levels.

For the weekend and into early next week, the upper high is progged to
elongate north and west across the West Coast and into the Great Basin
leading to unseasonably strong north to northwest flow aloft in place
across the Rockies once again. While avaiable moisture does thin out
within the northerly flow aloft, there will continue to be bouts of
increased uvv and moisture, especially across Eastern Colorado, with
passing waves translating down the backside of the upper ridge across
the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains. These waves will bring
cold fronts and surges in available moisture, with continued chances of
showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher terrain,
throughout the extended forecast. Temperatures through the extended
period look to be below to possible well below late July levels,
especially across the southeast Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through 24 hours.

KALS: Showers and storms are expected to move off of the nearby
mountains by 21Z this afternoon, and will remain in the vicinity of
the terminal through this evening. Timing on any direct impacts to
the terminal will be difficult due to the scattered nature of storms
today. Current best chances for storms at the terminal will be
between 20-01Z, though confidence in coverage is still low enough to
leave as VCTS for now. Storms will produce gusty, erratic outflow
winds and moderate rainfall. Storms across the valley should mostly
dissipate prior to midnight tonight.

KCOS: Storms will move in from the terrain to the west shortly after
20Z, with storms expected close to and over the terminal starting
around 21Z, briefly reducing vis and ceilings. This timing could
vary a bit depending on the speed of the incoming cold front. When
the front arrives, winds will turn from the NNE before becoming more
variable in the presence of showers and storms through the remainder
of today and into this evening. Storms should leave the area by
about 10pm tonight, leaving winds a bit lighter overnight, with a
northerly component.

KPUB: Easterly winds will persist ahead of the incoming cold front.
As it arrives, showers and thunderstorms will pick up and move off
of the mountains and towards the terminal. Best chances for storms
at the terminal will be between 22-00Z this afternoon, with storms
remaining in the general vicinity into early evening. Near and
beneath storms, winds will be variable and gusty with moderate to
heavy rainfall. This could limit vis and cloud ceilings for brief
amounts of time through this afternoon and into this evening. Storms
should depart the area of the terminal by about 10pm tonight, with
weaker and more variable winds overnight. Winds will pick up again
from the southeast close to the end of this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO