764
FXUS65 KPUB 032032
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
232 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/Severe storms likely today over eastern plains.

- Spotty critical fire weather over portions of the high country
  tomorrow

- Below normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms will dominate the extended forecast,
  as northwest flow aloft remains in place across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently...

Showers and storms were noted over parts of the fcst area at 2 pm,
with nearly all of the activity south of US50. Storms in the San
Luis valley were on the strong side, with winds gusting to around 55
mph at KALS.

Moisture over the plains has held in through early afternoon as
dwpts were still well into the 50s to mid 60s across the plains,
while on the other side of the mtns dwpts have decreased into the
20s and 30s.

Rest of today into mid evening...

Based on the moisture on the plains, winds aloft being rather
robust, effective shear values in the 30 to 50 knt range and CAPE
values of 1500 to 2500 Js, we are likely going to see some strong to
severe storms develop over the plains in the immediate future.
Although all of the plains could see storms, strongest storms will
likely be east of the interstate, where damaging gusts and large
hail will be possible. Cant rule out a tornado today although no
well defined incipient boundaries were noted in the data. Looking at
the soundings, there is some rather fat CAPE over the plains, so
rather large hail will be possible. Hodographs dont look overly
favorable early on for well organized rotating storms, but that is
fcst to change as the lower level winds pick up late this afternoon
and evening. In a nutshell, we should see some strong/svr storms over
the plains later this afternoon.

The activity over the plains will likely move out of the region by
early to mid evening.

Later tonight...

Drier air moves in the wake of the convective activity and we will
clear out.

Towards midnight, a rather strong cold front will push south over
the Palmer and we will see gusty northerly winds push down the
plains. This will bring in (relatively) cooler weather for the 4th
of July.

4th of July...

A rather impressive Holiday is in store for SE CO given that it is
the 4th of July and we will likely not see any temps over the plains
reaching 90 degrees! Additionally, it is likely going to be quite
dry over the area, so a very nice holiday is in store for the
region.

Regarding fire wx concerns, there will be some spotty conditions
over parts of the interior, especially N San Luis Valley and Chaffee
county. I do not plan any hilites at this time but will mention
spotty conditions in the FWF product.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Friday and Saturday..

Post-frontal temperatures on Friday will be nice and cool, with
highs in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s across our plains and
mountain valleys. Relative humidity values begin to increase across
the plains, though some dry air remains in place over the high
country. Winds are weaker on Friday, but will strengthen on
Saturday. This will mean a downtick in critical fire weather
conditions for Friday, but more widespread chances for critical fire
weather through portions of the high country and the San Luis Valley
on Saturday. We are warmer on Saturday as well, with highs reaching
back into the low 90s on the plains, and low 80s for mountain
valleys with breezy westerly winds over the mountains. Afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms and thunderstorms will be possible
both days as well, with some stronger storms possible depending on
the setup both days.

Sunday Onwards..

As the high over California drifts more inland towards the Great
Basin for the first half of next week, our temperatures look to
remain near and just below normal for most locations. Models bring a
cold front across the area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday,
which will also help to keep temperatures cooler for a couple of
days. This will mean highs topping out in the 80s on the plains for
Sunday and Monday, and in the low 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Daily
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to persist
across the forecast area through this period, with a slight downturn
in coverage expected by the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

isolated showers/-tsra possible this mid afternoon then no
significant weather. Overall expect VFR through the 24 hour
period except for the possibility of brief MVFR in any heavier
showers. Breezy southerly wind at KCOS and KPUB this afternoon
with winds shifting to a more westerly component late this
afternoon/early evening. For KCOS, a wind shift with increasing
NW winds expected shortly after midnight tonight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH