673
FXUS65 KPUB 041733
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and seasonably cool today across the area. Low
  chance for a shower or two over the Palmer, with potential
  for scattered showers and storms over the SE plains tonight.

- There will be a daily threat of isolated to scattered
  afternoon and evening convection through the extended, with
  temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Dry conditions with seasonably normal temperatures will lead to a
fairly mild 4th of July today. Dry northwest flow aloft will set in
just behind the departure of the previous upper trough, allowing
some gusty winds to mix down towards the surface over parts of the
higher terrain. This, mixed with drying conditions, will result in
some spotty critical fire weather conditions over parts of the La
Garitas, northern San Luis Valley, and Chaffee County. However,
conditions at this time look too spotty to warrant any highlights.
Over the eastern plains, winds will be easterly and fairly weak, and
will bring in enough moisture to raise humidities well out of
critical range. While there does exist a low-end chance for an
isolated shower or two over the Palmer Divide later this afternoon
into this evening, chances are low for any precipitation to make it
to the ground in our forecast area today. Otherwise, the area will
be dry through the rest of the day with partly cloudy skies, with
high temperatures staying in the 80s.

Tonight, some models do show some isolated convection over the far
southeast plains, generally due to easterly upslope taking advantage
of the moist post-frontal air. However, only some of the models are
putting out these showers and storms in our area, leaving most of
the activity south of us. Anything that does form is likely to be
high-based given the dewpoint spreads. Little precipitation is
expected at this time, though showers could put out some strong
outflow winds and some small hail if they manage to persist, given
the good amounts of shear in the convective-allowing models.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Friday and Saturday...Upper ridge of high pressure will remain in
place over the West Coast through Sat, keeping cooler northwest flow
aloft across CO. However, an upper low will drop into the Dakotas
Sat, shifting the flow aloft to a slightly more westerly direction
and tightening the pressure gradient. This will mean warmer temps on
Sat as well as dry conditions and less convection for the higher
elevations and I-25 Corridor, as well as spotty near-critical fire
weather conditions. Across the far eastern plains, surface winds
will shift to a more southerly direction, drawing llvl moisture up
into the southeast corner of the state and increasing chances for a
few strong storms along the eastern border. Look for high temps
around 80F for the high valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s for the
plains on Fri, then 5 to 10 degrees warmer across the plains on Sat.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front drops south across eastern CO
Sunday morning, knocking temps down to slightly below normal levels
once again across the eastern plains for both Sunday and Monday. In
addition, frontal passage and the resulting upslope flow at the
surface will increase precipitation chances across the eastern mts
and plains Sunday and Sunday night. By Monday the ridge to the west
will start to move inland, weakening the northwest flow aloft, and
lingering moisture will translate to scattered convection over the
mts and isolated activity for the plains during the afternoon and
evening. Plan on high temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most
areas both days.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The center of the western ridge moves across
NV and UT, boosting temps across the forecast area and keeping
isolated to low end scattered precip chances mainly tied to the
higher terrain. Maximum temps will climb to around 80F for the high
valleys and 80s to around 90F for the plains both days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KPUB. Winds will be diurnally driven
through the fcst period. Some modest gusty winds will occur in
the afternoon and early evening time period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH