![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
407 FXUS61 KPHI 010432 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1232 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will clear our region overnight. High pressure builds in Monday through Tuesday before moving offshore Wednesday. A surface trough arrives on Thursday as a cold front may approach from the northwest Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM, the cold front has shifted east and southeast of I-95 with a wind shift to the northwest. A significant lowering of the few points is occurring in the wake of this front with areas farther to the northwest having dew points down into the 50s. The last of the convection is working off the coast of far southeast New Jersey and southern Delaware. Adjusted the PoPs to show a much faster decrease over the next hour or so. Made some adjustments to the dew points as well based on the latest observations and trends. A much drier airmass will continue to spread across our region overnight. With a fairly tight pressure gradient developing over the area and decent cold air advection, northwest winds will pick up to around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph prior to sunrise before increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Monday morning. Winds diminish Monday afternoon. Much more pleasant weather for Monday with below normal highs in the upper 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain the dominant feature through Wednesday. The mostly pleasant and tranquil conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will be near normal, mainly in the low-mid 80s. However, with dew points forecast to remain in the 50s, another pleasant day looks to be on tap. Lows Tuesday night will be a touch warmer as well, mainly in the low-mid 60s. As the high shifts further east on Wednesday, expect low level southerly return flow to usher in a modest warming trend, but conditions should remain quite pleasant. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Summary...Approaching trough and cold front will be responsible for rain chances through the long term. Few changes from the previous forecast. Synoptic Overview...A Canadian upper-level trough will push the ridge southward some Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a trough arrives Thursday with a cold front approaching from the northwest Friday. Thursday (Independence Day) through Sunday...Southerly flow becomes more established leading to hot and humid conditions through the weekend. The influence of a Canadian upper-level trough will start to approach during Thursday, however the timing and amplitude of this trough is less certain. As of now, the main trough is more toward the Midwest and therefore the associated cold front may be slow to approach our area late in the week. There may be a pre- frontal trough in our vicinity Thursday into Friday and this may provide enough focus amid a destabilizing air mass to initiate some convection. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...VFR. Northwesterly winds around 10 knots. Moderate confidence. Monday...VFR. Northwesterly winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing by later in the afternoon. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather. Thursday and Friday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (25-35%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to shift to the NW behind the passing cold front overnight. Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on all waters late tonight through midday Monday. SCA in effect from 09Z to 17Z Monday to cover this. Outlook... Tuesday through Friday...Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA criteria. Rip Currents... Monday...Behind a cold front, N winds will average 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the morning, then will diminish to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Due to these elevated winds and breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore. For Delaware Beaches, winds will back slightly to the NW and will be a bit lighter. This results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for Delaware Beaches. On Tuesday, much more tranquil conditions with E to NE winds 5 to 10 mph. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/Gorse/Johnson NEAR TERM...Gorse/MPS SHORT TERM...AKL/Johnson LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse/Johnson AVIATION...Gorse/Johnson/MPS MARINE...Johnson/MPS