625
FNUS76 KPDT 160214
FWSPDT

Spot Forecast for Lone Rock Fire...Oregon State Fire Marshal
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
714 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 PDT on July 15.
***Thunderstorms imply gusty and erratic winds***
***Winds are 20 foot 10-minute averages***
***CWR-Chance of wetting rain 0.10 or greater***

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast, please
contact our office at (541) 276-8134.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will continue through the week,
providing hot and dry conditions across the fire area. However,
an upper low pressure system riding up the coast will clip the
fire area, providing a slight chance(15-20%) of isolated
thunderstorms Wednesday morning. Low confidence (10%) in
isolated dry thunderstorms developing in the Tuesday overnight hours.
Winds will also increase to 7 to 12 mph from the northwest late
in the afternoon Wednesday. RHs will be in the single digits to
teens, with poor overnight recoveries.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....90-95.
Min humidity........7-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 4 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon, then
shifting to the north late in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......South winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the north
6 to 11 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL early in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........29-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
east by midnight, the shifting to the
                    south 4 to 6 mph before sunrise.
Ridgetop wind.......North winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the
south 5 to 10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and dry thunderstorms in the morning.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....90-94.
Min humidity........12-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 4 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the morning.
Ridgetop wind.......South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest
8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Lawhorn
Requested by...Chris Schimmer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418147.0/PDT
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.schimmer@portlandoregon.gov