Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
968 FXUS66 KPDT 040959 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 259 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...A ridge of high pressure continues building offshore of the region shown from the water vapor imagery. This supports a warming trend of high temps in the 90s to lower 100s across the forecast area with temps 5-20 degrees above normal into next week. Observed from the NBM, probability of exceeding 100 degrees for Friday is broadly 20- 50% around the Columbia Basin and the eastern Columbia River Gorge, but locally 60-80% for central OR. Given the incoming heat wave and low relative humidity, this will facilitate Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the lower elevations and elevated concerns for fire weather potential due to critically dry environment. And due to these conditions, heat advisories and warnings have been issued starting Friday into next week. Winds will be light across the forecast area with occasional wind gusts between 15-25mph around Kittitas valley (80-100% confidence). Feaster/97 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...Sensible weather concerns through the extended forecast will revolve around a prolonged heatwave that will bring Moderate to Major HeatRisk across many lower elevation and mountain valley locations. An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main synoptic feature impacting the region through the latter half of next week. The ridge axis will start offshore western CONUS on Saturday, then gradually push east over the region where it will be centered along the 114W Meridian by Thursday. With the ridge overhead, very dry conditions will develop area-wide, while very hot temperatures develop and linger through Thursday. Winds will also generally be light with locally breezy conditions developing in the afternoons through late next week. High temperatures across most lower elevations will generally be between 100 to 105 degrees (confidence 90-100%), while temperatures between 105 to 110 will develop across the Columbia Basin (confidence 75-90%). Ensembles also indicate that temperatures between 95 to 100 degrees will develop in some mountain valley locations across the Cascade east slopes, Blues, and Wallowas by early next week(confidence 75-85%). Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION...Previous Discussion...06Z TAFS...Clear skies and light terrain driven winds will continue through 06Z/5th. Wister/85 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 90 58 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 93 60 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 94 62 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 93 59 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 95 60 101 62 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 92 59 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 93 53 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 87 55 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 55 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 97 65 104 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-507-508-510. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ505- 511. WA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-026>029-521. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ523. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...85