442
FXUS61 KPBZ 062201
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
601 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is anticipated to continue into Monday under high
pressure. Fog potential increases early Sunday morning north of
Pittsburgh, PA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today.
- Fog potential increases early Sunday morning with radiational
  cooling, especially for areas north of Pittsburgh.

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Dry, quiet weather will continue across the region under high
pressure. Overnight low temperatures will be near the
climatological average (low to mid-60s) across the region.

With a prolong period of clearing overnight, radiational fog may
develop for portions of the region. Hi-Res model guidance are
focusing heavily near the I-80 region for fog due to elevated
sfc moisture. However, confidence for a Dense Fog Advisory over
the next 12 hours are low.

Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly warmer than Saturday
with slight warm advection aloft and dirunal mixing under a
mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5 degrees above the
climatological average; heat index values south of Pittsburgh
are anticipated to be near 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.

- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in
cloud cover, early morning fog development could continue into
Monday.

With a noted 590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures
around 20C by Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to
range in the low to mid-90s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence forecast. Scattered cu will wane around sunset
leaving cirrus clouds. There are low probs in the gridded LAMP
and NBM /less than 40%/ of MVFR fog 3-5SM developing south of
I-70. For now, left it out of the forecast given the amount of
mixing of dry air today and using parcel trajectories from this
morning.

VFR weather carries through Sunday. The CU rule gives scattered
high based cu once again, with possible short duration broken
clouds near Lake Erie.

Wind will light less than five knots from the southwest.

.Outlook...
Monday...VFR
Tuesday - Thursday: MVFR weather with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, but most of the time VFR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
AVIATION...McMullen