212
FXUS61 KPBZ 060704
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
304 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After isolated lingering showers exit early this morning, dry
weather returns through Monday with temperature rising well
above normal by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday.

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With the trough still to the west, a few showers or storm are
still possible to develop through the predawn hours. Much of the
potential should be diminished by 12Z. Passage of a surface
trough and upper wave will diminish precipitation chances west
to east and offer a slight reprieve from the warm, muggy
conditions by dawn.

Heading into the coming day, drier southwest flow and ridging
at the surface will support dry weather today. Lingering
morning stratus clouds are expected to break up with a scattered
to broken cumulus field developing in the late morning to early
afternoon; weak cool advection plus the cloud cover should aid
temperature returning to more seasonal values. More notably for
some, drier air will mix to the surface and bring relief to the
region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather
  persists.
- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region.
Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air
returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog
development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday
morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic
will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next
upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk
concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat
indices above advisory criteria remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.
- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the
wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating
to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature.
Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means
showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at
least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other
severe hazards.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Confidence in widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings has decreased as
clouds continue to clear from west to east across the area. As a
result, have pushed back onset of cig restrictions, which will
likely be fairly brief (around 6 hours). IFR is most likely at
FKL/DUJ/MGW, with MVFR or low VFR expected elsewhere. Early
clearing may also promote more fog coverage than previously
expected, but confidence in this is low. Fog remains most likely
at ZZV and MGW.

Return to VFR is expected by 15z with diurnal heating and
building high pressure. Westerly winds will gust to near 20kts
during the afternoon.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions should persist into Sunday under high pressure.
The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with our
next system Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Rackley/88