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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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570 FXUS63 KPAH 111123 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 623 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal continue today. - Temperatures and humidity gradually increase through the work week. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast Monday. Heavy rainfall and flooding issues are still possible, and even some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the middle of the week. Confidence in location and timing details remains limited. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Updated the aviation forecast for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mid-level cloud cover early this morning has overperformed relative to model forecasts, keeping temperatures and dew points a bit more elevated than expected at this point. T and Td have been nudged higher as a result, with early morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Partial clearing during the day is likely, but continued clouds and the passage of high pressure should keep highs on track to the near 80 to lower 80s. A warm front sitting over Oklahoma very slowly lifts northward and eastward as high pressure gradually shifts away from the Quad State. A storm cluster tonight in Missouri is expected to weaken on approach to the Quad State as forcing becomes much less favorable and moisture is limited. Temperatures remain well below normal during the day Monday but a warming trend begins as moisture increases Monday night onward. Improvements in moisture and forcing are expected mid-week, with the warm front slowly lifting northeastward. WPC QPF holds onto 0.5 inch in the southeast and 1.5-2 inches in the northwest between late Tuesday and Thursday night. Potential for training heavy rain exists with PW of 1.75 to 2 inches (though the high end may be overestimated in the earlier stages of midweek given the limited flow), which could lead to flooding, but ensembles are lacking focus in location and timing, keeping uncertainty elevated. Despite the improved moisture and comparatively improved environment, shear and instability are still fairly limited. A few strong storms are possible. Severe potential appears unlikely, but day to day storm development will depend much on the previous rounds and rouge boundaries might give a needed extra boost. Temperatures trend warmer mid to late week, with the caveat of convection limiting highs. Previous model cycles had developed the Central Plains low into a large system over the Ohio River Valley next weekend but seem to be trending further north. With this shift, PoPs next weekend are mainly in the slight chance range and highs near normal appear more likely. However, there`s plenty of time for adjustments at this range with much occurring in between. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mid-level clouds continue to move through the Quad State. A shift to higher clouds occurs tonight. Winds will be around 5 kts during the day, returning to calm conditions in the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL