981
FXUS63 KPAH 071940
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will impact the region beginning late
  Monday through Wednesday night.

- Tropical rains will be heavy at times, especially across
  southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This could lead to
  some flooding issues developing.

- A few severe storms will be possible as well late Monday and
  again Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes
  will be the primary hazards.

- Drying out and warming up back to typical mid-summer heat and
  humidity for the end of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tonight...High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is
bringing one last quiet day to the region. High temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew point temperatures
have crept into the middle to upper 60s in most areas as
southerly return flow gradually ramps up. Overnight lows
tonight will fall into the middle to upper 60s under increasing
high cirrus cloud cover.

Monday through Wednesday...The first half of the week will be
active as the remnants of tropical system Beryl move through
the region. The latest NHC forecast shows Beryl making landfall
on the Texas Gulf Coast Monday morning, then turning north and
eventually northeast. The system will become extratropical as it
interacts with a upper-level trough that will move into the
central and northern Great Plains. Most model guidance brings
the center of circulation near or a bit south of STL Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The system looks to be well
northeast of the region by Wednesday night.

Weather conditions will become more unsettled during the course
of the day Monday as Beryl`s remnants begin to interact with
the upper- level trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will develop in the afternoon, mainly near and west of the
Mississippi River. Cannot rule of an isolated strong to severe
storm here as well as the atmosphere will be quite unstable with
increasing southwesterly sheared flow from the approaching
trough. Damaging winds look to be the main threat during this
time. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, with
a few spots across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile topping out
in the the lower 90s. Humidity will be very noticeable as well,
with dew point temperatures climbing into the lower to middle
70s during the day. Overnight lows Monday night will fall into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The bulk of the heavy rain from Beryl`s remnants looks to fall
Monday night through Tuesday night. As is typical with tropical
systems, PWAT values will be very elevated along with very deep
warm cloud layers. This will allow for very efficient rainfall
production. Latest QPF from WPC is still showing a broad brush
of 1-3" of rain from east to west over the region, respectively.
However, confidence remains low in the placement of the
heaviest rain axis. Would not be surprised to see one or two
more wobbles in the heavy rain placement between now and Monday
night. If confidence in the rainfall placement and intensity
becomes higher, a Flood Watch may be needed for some parts of
the area during the Mon PM to Tue PM period.

Beyond the flooding risk, concern is growing for the severe
thunderstorm potential on Tuesday afternoon. As the center of
Beryl`s circulation passes to our NW, a warm frontal boundary
will lift north into west KY, southern IL, and southwest IN.
Surface flow will be backed to the ESE south of the boundary,
resulting in an extremely sheared environment. There will likely
be some breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon hours,
allowing for destabilization. Depending on the model, MLCAPE of
750-1500 J/kg will develop in this area, with storms initiating
in the afternoon hours and trekking northeast. Similar setups
in the past have produced tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. For
example, on Sept. 8, 2018, the remnants of T.S. Gordon produced
flash flooding across southern IL and four weak tornadoes in
the Owensboro area. SPC has most of the forecast area outlooked
for a marginal risk for Tuesday, and would not be surprised if
the severe outlook is raised with later updates if the forecast
remains unchanged.

Outside of the severe and flooding risks, temperatures will vary
greatly from west to east due to the cloud and precipitation
coverage. Highs in the Ozark Foothills will only reach the
middle to upper 70s, while parts of southwest IN and KY
Pennyrile will reach upper 80s. Additionally, gradient winds
will be breezy at times, though not particularly impactful.
Gusts may reach 20-25 mph at most.

By Wednesday, Beryl`s remnant circulation will be moving away to
our northeast. This will bring a drying trend as we go into the
afternoon. Cloud cover will still be plentiful, so high
temperatures will be limited to the upper 70s and lower 80s in
most areas. Low temperatures Wednesday will fall into the middle
to upper 60s under clearing skies.

Thursday through Saturday...A return to weakly anticyclonic
mid-level flow and surface high pressure edging eastward into
the Midwest will bring a return of quiet weather for the end of
the work week into the first half of next weekend. High
temperatures will rebound into the middle and upper 80s on
Thursday, the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and the lower
90s by Saturday. With dew point temperatures returning to the
lower 70s by Saturday, some areas will see triple digit heat
index values during the heat of the day as well. Overnight lows
will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the 18z TAF issuance. Fair
weather CU with bases AOA 5kft will develop over the terminals
through this afternoon, before diminishing tonight under passing
high cirrus. Additional CU will develop Monday morning beginning
around 15-16z under thickening high cirrus decks. Light E-SE
winds will become light and variable tonight, then pick up from
the S-SSW after daybreak Monday AOA 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS