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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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187 FXUS63 KPAH 031135 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 635 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT today for most of the Quad State. Only Perry county Missouri and the northwest portions of southern Illinois are not in the Advisory. More triple digit heat indices are possible mainly over the southwest half of the region Thursday afternoon. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this Wednesday afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and night. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain/flash flooding will be the primary hazards. - Turning drier and more comfortable for the weekend, with a small chance of thunderstorms returning to the forecast early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Heat indices today will likely reach 105 over the entire Quad State, but there will be some potential for morning convection and associated cloud debris to hold temperatures down in our northwest counties, mainly in southern Illinois. For that reason decided to only add Carter, Wayne MO, and Bollinger counties to today`s Heat Advisory. Heat indices could even reach 110 degrees in Carter and Ripley. There will certainly be potential for another Heat Advisory on Thursday, but the area will be dependent on the uncertain convective details tonight into Thursday morning. That decision may not be possible until tomorrow morning`s midnight shift. Convection moving east across central Missouri will outrun the better low-level moisture as it attempts to move into southern Illinois later this morning. A few showers may make it, but the outflow boundary may be the bigger impact for the Quad State today. There is a signal in much of the guidance for scattered convection to develop this morning into the afternoon over west Kentucky. Middle 70s surface dewpoints are expected to overspread much of west Kentucky today, and that coupled with the outflow boundary or differential heating boundary may support convective development for much of the day. Later this afternoon, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop over northern portions of the area. Exactly when and where will be hard to determine until this morning`s convection plays itself out. With the building heat and humidity expected today, instability will be moderate to strong across the Quad State, while shear will be rather weak. Expect storms to be outflow dominated with a damaging wind threat the primary severe concern. Thunderstorms will advect eastward and build southward into the best instability through this evening. It is not certain if they will progress bodily southward through the entire area or not. Given the anomalous moisture expected, any storms are likely to produce torrential rainfall and could lead to some minor flooding issues. A weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will bring a second round of convection eastward into southern Illinois late tonight. It will continue eastward through the Tri State Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall and flooding are the most likely concerns with this round of convection. Thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is likely to the southwest of the morning convection, where significant heating occurs. Moderate to strong instability will be possible and shear should be a bit stronger. A few severe storms will be possible again with damaging winds the main concern. Flash flooding will be a greater concern with this round of convection since it could be falling over areas that received significant rainfall from one or more of the earlier rounds. A final round of convection is possible later Thursday night into Friday in association with the cold frontal passage. Shear will be better with this convection, but instability may be limited due to previous convection. For now would expect torrential rainfall and flash flooding to be the most likely concern. It appears that most of the region will be dry by Friday evening and stay that way through the weekend. Temperatures will drop to around normal levels Friday and stay that way through the first half of next week. South winds will develop on Sunday, and that should eventually lead to increasing moisture and more chances of thunderstorms Sunday night, or more likely on Monday. The chances of thunderstorms will continue through at least Tuesday. At this time, severe storms and widespread heavy rainfall do not seem likely for early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 South winds will be the rule over most of the region today. Gusts 15-20kts will be possible across the northern sites. An outflow boundary may push through KMVN early this morning, but it should wash out quickly with mixing this morning. Convection is expected late today through the tonight, but the details are still rather sketchy. Opted to keep the TAFs VFR with only VCTS mentioned generally for the evening or pre-dawn hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ077-078-083-086>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS