755
FXUS63 KPAH 070004
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
704 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the
  second half of the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Monday
  as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region.

- Rainfall chances will become likely for the middle of the week
  as the remnants of Beryl move through the area. Locally heavy
  rain is possible.

- Drying out for the end of the work week, with only a small
  chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Brilliant weather for early July
will continue through tonight and Sunday as high pressure
remains centered over the region. Low temperatures tonight will
fall into the lower to middle 60s. Added a mention of patchy fog
to the forecast for the Wabash River valley around daybreak
Sunday where temperatures will cool the most, but dense fog does
not appear likely at this time.

Sunday will again see plenty of sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures owing to increasing southerly return flow. This
will allow high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Humidity levels will be somewhat tolerable for most
of the day, but towards the evening dew point temperatures will
creep towards 70 degrees. Sunday night will be dry with low
temperatures falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most
areas.

Monday through Wednesday night...A complex and tricky setup is
in store for the early to middle part of next week. There will
be two features that will impact the region: 1) an upper-level
trough that will move from the central and northern Great Plains
and 2) the remnants of Beryl, which is forecast to make
landfall Monday along the Texas Gulf Coast. As it stands now,
Beryl will be drawn north and eventually northeast as it
interacts with the upper-level trough. This will bring the
center of circulation through or close to the forecast area
Wednesday into Thursday.

However, precipitation chances will ramp up beginning as early
as Monday as the upper-level trough moves towards the region.
Forcing looks to be minor, so only isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected at this time. This will allow
temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. PoPs will
increase to high chc and likely Monday night as Beryl begins to
interact with the trough. Beryl`s tropical profile will result
in a deep warm cloud layer and elevated PWAT values, both will
result in efficient/enhanced rainfall processes. The heaviest
rain looks to pass through the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday afternoon, just ahead of the arrival of the center of
circulation. By late Wednesday night, the latest WPC QPF shows a
broad brush of 1-3" of rain falling during the Tuesday-
Wednesday period, with locally higher amounts possible across
southeast MO into western KY. The potential for flooding impacts
will depend on rainfall rates, at least some nuisance flooding
looks likely at this time assuming nothing changes considerably
with Beryl`s path. Clouds and rain coverage will keep high
temperatures confined to the lower to middle 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Did have to make some adjustments to the NBM initialization to
reflect the increases QPF: 1) increased PoPs into the high chc
and likely ranges for Tuesday night through Wednesday night
period, 2) increased sky cover during this period as well, 3)
bumped up winds/wind gusts slightly to match with southern
neighbors, but winds should still be well below Wind Advisory
criteria.

Thursday through Friday night...The impacts of Beryl will exit
the region from west to east during the day Thursday. This will
mean lowering PoPs and less cloud cover. High temperatures will
return to the middle to upper 80s for this period, with
overnight lows falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most
areas. The upper-level trough will still be near enough to the
region to keep a slight to low chc PoP in the forecast during
the heat of the day both days, but the great majority of the
forecast area will be dry as we go into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Good flying conditions are expected through much of this TAF
issuance. The main concern will be late tonight into Sunday
morning as temperatures approach the crossover temperature
threshold near EVV/OWB. That may introduce some ground fog with
MVFR visibility. Otherwise, a few afternoon CU will be possible
Sunday afternoon and winds will remain fairly light, under 10
kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...KC