166
FXUS63 KPAH 042258
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
558 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sultry heat and humidity will continue through early tonight
  for southern portions of the area, and a Heat Advisory is in
  effect until 9 PM CDT.

- Thunderstorms will continue through late tonight. A few storms
  may be strong to severe with damaging wind the main threat.

- Thunderstorms will also produce heavy rainfall, and areas of
  flash flooding are possible across portions of southeast
  Missouri, southern Illinois, and far northwest Kentucky.

- Drying out with less hot and humid conditions this weekend.
  The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

As of 2pm temperatures have warmed into the upper 80`s to lower
90`s and with dewpoints in the upper 70`s to low 80`s, heat
indices are climbing above 105 across many locations. Earlier
the heat advisory was expanded north to account for the trend in
clear skies and recovery behind morning convection. Otherwise,
we watch for storm development the rest of the afternoon and
evening. The atmosphere is very unstable given the warm
temperatures and low level moisture. MLCAPE values are running
well into the 3000`s across much of the area. CAMS this morning
suggested high uncertainty in the forecast given the weakly
forced environment, but recently have shown some agreement into
tonight. Believe most of the afternoon activity will be focused
across SEMO, western KY, and far southern IL. Locally shear is
weak but better north of the area aided by a 80-100 knot upper
jet streak across the midwest. Still 30+ knots of 0-6km shear
supports some organization and severe weather threat. The main
threat will be gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.

Guidance favors a break in activity late this evening ahead of
the next round of precipitation, likely after sunset. Still
though, an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out. An
additional round of showers and storms are expected to arrive
overnight associated with a frontal passage. Believe this
activity will be more widespread. Timing appears to be after
midnight for most locations. The flood watch may need to be
extended through the morning hours. The frontal passage on
Friday brings an end to the precipitation. By Friday afternoon
most if not all areas will be dry. High pressure will build in
from the west over the weekend continuing to bring dry weather
and cooler temperatures. Confidence remains low for next week.
The upper level ridge across the Gulf Coast moves east with a
deepening trough across the plains. Hurricane Beryl may begin to
move west of the ridge and turn northward moving into portions
of Texas. Moisture from Beryl may make its way into the area
bringing an increase in chances of showers and storms next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

An isolated storm or two may still develop early this evening,
but the better chances may hold off until closer to midnight or
later. This would be as a broken line or clusters of showers
and storms approach and move through the TAF sites from west to
east. Lower ceilings and visibilities will occur in any of the
storms and gusty winds will also be possible. Otherwise,
improving conditions can be expected through the day Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>087.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ088>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>109.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KYZ014-018-019.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>013-
     015>017-020>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC