Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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209 FXUS64 KOUN 071748 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Complex of storms across northern Oklahoma will continue to move south and southeast this morning. Strong wind gusts will continue with to occur with the strongest cells and some isolated heavy rainfall will also be possible. Models are not handling this activity well as most either do not have the convection or dissipate it. Appears that it will not dissipate anytime soon and may trek all the way across northern and portions of central Oklahoma this morning. Still think that this will move off and focus will shift back to the north and northwest for this afternoon as additional convection is expected to develop along synoptic boundary there during the peak heating of the afternoon hours. Deep layer shear will be supportive of some embedded supercell structures, especially early on, when more cellular or isolated cells are expected. Even with upper 60 dewpoints, higher LCLs should limit overall tornado risk, but cannot rule one out across western/northwestern Oklahoma near the low level boundaries this afternoon. However large hail and damaging winds will be possible and the main hazards early on. Upscale growth into a larger complex(MCS) of storms is expected as we go into the evening hours with a transition to more of a damaging wind threat, along with heavy rainfall as PWATs will be near climatological max. This complex will then translate southward across much of the area overnight Sunday night with a continued wind and heavy rain threat. Flood Watch has already been issued and will maintain the watch through early Monday morning. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler across the north today with expected precip and cloud cover with warmer readings across the south, where far southwest Oklahoma and north Texas could flirt with the century mark. This gradient will also be there for tonight as the north will see temps in the lower 60s to near 70 along with Red river. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Precip chances continue Monday, with the higher chances across the south by afternoon. Also continue to track remnants of Beryl as it moves north and northeast across eastern Texas and then into the Arklatex region into Monday night. This moisture will skirt southeast Oklahoma Monday night. However, much of the western half to two-thirds of the state, being on the western/subsident side of the system should see minimal impacts. Trough axis then translates to our east as we go into the middle of the week with a slow warm up and only minimal rain chances. Most of the area should be back into the 90s for afternoon highs by weeks end. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A complex of thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma will continue to move to the southeast this afternoon and will likely affect KDUA within the next 1 to 2 hours with at least some gusty/variable winds from thunderstorm outflow. Additional thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the evening with the highest probabilities from KCSM to KLAW to KOKC/KOUN, where TEMPOs were included. Gusty, variable winds and brief reductions in visibilities are possible with any thunderstorms. There is the chance of additional redevelopment overnight (PROB30s were included to account for this). Lower ceilings are also expected overnight/toward sunrise tomorrow. MVFR ceilings were included for now, but there is the chance some terminals may experience IFR ceilings. Winds this afternoon will generally be from the east-southeast to southeast. These winds will shift to the north/northeast as a cold front/wind shift moves through tonight. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 88 67 81 66 / 90 80 60 30 Hobart OK 94 66 82 64 / 40 80 60 30 Wichita Falls TX 96 68 84 68 / 0 60 70 20 Gage OK 83 63 81 60 / 80 70 40 20 Ponca City OK 80 65 83 64 / 90 80 40 20 Durant OK 95 69 84 68 / 10 60 70 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042- 044>046-050. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10