Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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857 FXUS64 KOUN 071830 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Round one is just about done, as storms continue to move across the far southeastern third of our forecast area. In the past 12 hours, widespread rains have occurred in Oklahoma, with nearly 6 inches of rainfall in Kingfisher County. Unfortunately, our Texas counties have been shut out so far, but this event isn`t over by any means. To say the pattern is complicated might be in insult to the word complicated. First, the MCS continues to push an outflow boundary from Wichita Falls to Durant (at 18Z). There is an elevated frontal boundary noted on satellite and observations from El Reno to Guymon, which will likely be a big player in additional thunderstorm development. Between these boundaries, there is a mix of sunshine and cloud cover, but a lot of SW Oklahoma and western north Texas are under clear skies. In these clear skies, temperatures are in the 80s and 90s...and the dewpoints are near or above 70. Additional thunderstorms are already attempting to develop on the intersection of the boundary and deferential heating boundary around Union City to Binger (1825Z). CAMS are on board with these thunderstorms moving a bit to the south and increasing in coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast CAPE and shear values will be sufficient for supercell features in storms that are able to develop, with large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards. Fox && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rain and thunderstorm chances remain through Monday night and Tuesday, as Beryl tracks in to the Arklatex. However, the northern and northwestern sections of our forecast area will be dry, as the tropical moisture stays south and east. Afterwards, the atmosphere returns to its normal state, with scattered clouds during the day and temperatures warming back into the low-mid 90s...where they should be for this time of year. Fox && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A complex of thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma will continue to move to the southeast this afternoon and will likely affect KDUA within the next 1 to 2 hours with at least some gusty/variable winds from thunderstorm outflow. Additional thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the evening with the highest probabilities from KCSM to KLAW to KOKC/KOUN, where TEMPOs were included. Gusty, variable winds and brief reductions in visibilities are possible with any thunderstorms. There is the chance of additional redevelopment overnight (PROB30s were included to account for this). Lower ceilings are also expected overnight/toward sunrise tomorrow. MVFR ceilings were included for now, but there is the chance some terminals may experience IFR ceilings. Winds this afternoon will generally be from the east-southeast to southeast. These winds will shift to the north/northeast as a cold front/wind shift moves through tonight. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 81 66 86 / 80 60 20 10 Hobart OK 65 82 63 89 / 70 70 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 69 86 68 89 / 40 50 10 10 Gage OK 63 80 60 86 / 70 60 10 0 Ponca City OK 66 83 65 86 / 90 50 20 10 Durant OK 70 85 67 88 / 30 70 50 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042- 044>046-050. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...10