757
FXUS64 KOUN 072256
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Round one is just about done, as storms continue to move across
the far southeastern third of our forecast area. In the past 12
hours, widespread rains have occurred in Oklahoma, with nearly 6
inches of rainfall in Kingfisher County. Unfortunately, our Texas
counties have been shut out so far, but this event isn`t over by
any means.

To say the pattern is complicated might be in insult to the word
complicated. First, the MCS continues to push an outflow boundary
from Wichita Falls to Durant (at 18Z). There is an elevated
frontal boundary noted on satellite and observations from El Reno
to Guymon, which will likely be a big player in additional
thunderstorm development. Between these boundaries, there is a
mix of sunshine and cloud cover, but a lot of SW Oklahoma and
western north Texas are under clear skies. In these clear skies,
temperatures are in the 80s and 90s...and the dewpoints are near
or above 70.

Additional thunderstorms are already attempting to develop on the
intersection of the boundary and deferential heating boundary
around Union City to Binger (1825Z). CAMS are on board with these
thunderstorms moving a bit to the south and increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast CAPE and shear values will be sufficient for supercell
features in storms that are able to develop, with large hail and
gusty thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain through Monday night and
Tuesday, as Beryl tracks in to the Arklatex. However, the
northern and northwestern sections of our forecast area will be
dry, as the tropical moisture stays south and east.

Afterwards, the atmosphere returns to its normal state, with
scattered clouds during the day and temperatures warming back into
the low-mid 90s...where they should be for this time of year.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will affect central and southwestern
Oklahoma TAF sites this evening. Another complex of storms are
expected to move into western Oklahoma and spread east before and
around sunrise Monday. This complex will slowly move south across
the Red River by late morning. MVFR and VFR conditions are
expected except in some thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  66  86 /  80  60  20  10
Hobart OK         65  82  63  89 /  70  70  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  68  89 /  40  50  10  10
Gage OK           63  80  60  86 /  70  60  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  83  65  86 /  90  50  20  10
Durant OK         70  85  67  88 /  30  70  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042-
     044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10