320
FXUS64 KOUN 080351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Round one is just about done, as storms continue to move across
the far southeastern third of our forecast area. In the past 12
hours, widespread rains have occurred in Oklahoma, with nearly 6
inches of rainfall in Kingfisher County. Unfortunately, our Texas
counties have been shut out so far, but this event isn`t over by
any means.

To say the pattern is complicated might be in insult to the word
complicated. First, the MCS continues to push an outflow boundary
from Wichita Falls to Durant (at 18Z). There is an elevated
frontal boundary noted on satellite and observations from El Reno
to Guymon, which will likely be a big player in additional
thunderstorm development. Between these boundaries, there is a
mix of sunshine and cloud cover, but a lot of SW Oklahoma and
western north Texas are under clear skies. In these clear skies,
temperatures are in the 80s and 90s...and the dewpoints are near
or above 70.

Additional thunderstorms are already attempting to develop on the
intersection of the boundary and deferential heating boundary
around Union City to Binger (1825Z). CAMS are on board with these
thunderstorms moving a bit to the south and increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast CAPE and shear values will be sufficient for supercell
features in storms that are able to develop, with large hail and
gusty thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain through Monday night and
Tuesday, as Beryl tracks in to the Arklatex. However, the
northern and northwestern sections of our forecast area will be
dry, as the tropical moisture stays south and east.

Afterwards, the atmosphere returns to its normal state, with
scattered clouds during the day and temperatures warming back into
the low-mid 90s...where they should be for this time of year.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Another complex of storms is expected to move into western
Oklahoma and spread east before and around sunrise Monday. This
complex will slowly move south across the Red River by late
morning. Other showers and thunderstorms may form or move into
southeatern Oklahoma during the afternoon. MVFR and VFR
conditions are expected except in some thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  66  81  66 /  50  80  60  20
Hobart OK         94  65  82  63 /  30  70  70  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  69  86  68 /   0  40  50  10
Gage OK           83  63  80  60 /  80  70  60  10
Ponca City OK     80  66  83  65 /  90  90  50  20
Durant OK         95  70  85  67 /   0  30  70  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Monday for OKZ004>031-033>042-
     044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...09