Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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537 FXUS64 KOUN 080911 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The advertised High Plains storms have not turned out to be very widespread. We have had some shower/storm development across west central Oklahoma into the southeast Texas panhandle, but the organization of these storms has decreased over the last hour or so. With this, we have cancelled the Flood Watch early. There still could be some areas of heavy rain and localized flooding, but the potential does not look high enough to keep the watch going. Through the day, convection is expected to redevelop near and north of a surface boundary moving slowly through the area as temperatures warm enough to reduce convective inhibition. Meanwhile the precipitation shield from Hurricane Beryl currently moving onshore will spread north across east Texas and likely extend into or close to the southeastern portion of our forecast area, although much of the heaviest rain will likely remain to our east. The precipitation with this system will remain close enough to our southeastern zones to maintain higher POPs overnight into Tuesday morning in the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The remnants of Beryl will be pulling away from the area on Tuesday, but may still be close enough to keep precipitation in the eastern part of the area on Tuesday. The latest models suggest that the precipitation will likely have moved east out of the forecast area by sunset Tuesday evening. With Beryl passing to our east, we will keep the northerly surface flow across the area Tuesday and temperatures on the cooler side. But southerly flow redevelops by Wednesday and the mid-level ridging amplifies across the western and central U.S. through the week bringing back the heat and the dry weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Another complex of storms is expected to move into western Oklahoma and spread east before and around sunrise Monday. This complex will slowly move south across the Red River by late morning. Other showers and thunderstorms may form or move into southeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. MVFR and VFR conditions are expected except in some thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 66 85 64 / 50 30 10 0 Hobart OK 81 64 89 64 / 70 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 85 68 90 67 / 60 20 10 0 Gage OK 82 61 88 64 / 30 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 85 66 87 64 / 30 30 10 0 Durant OK 84 68 87 67 / 90 60 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...09