Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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942 FXUS64 KOUN 020832 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 332 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mid to upper ridging which has been centered overhead the past few days will begin to shift slowly eastward today. However, warming 850 temperatures and southwest surface winds will help boost temperatures at least a couple degrees over yesterday`s values, with air temperatures at or above 100 degrees expected just about everywhere. Dewpoints will be a few degrees lower which will help balance out heat indicies somewhat. Either way, it will still be quite hot and a heat advisory is in effect areawide. In addition to the heat, a cold front will bring a chance for thunderstorms to northwest Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. A hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will create an environment conducive for strong to severe wind gusts, which will be the main hazard today. The severe threat will likely linger a bit into the evening before weakening with loss of daytime heating. Finally, elevated fire weather is expected across much of western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas this afternoon where hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected amid ongoing flash drought and dry fuels. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The front is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma by Wednesday, where showers and storms could linger into the day. This will also help keep temperatures cooler here, with highs likely only in the 80`s. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions will continue with another day of triple digit highs expected. The heat continues into Thursday (4th of July), but the pattern will begin to change by later in the day as a stronger cold front moves into the area. Showers and storms will develop along the front by late afternoon across northern Oklahoma, with (40-50%) chances expanding southward into central Oklahoma during the evening, which could potentially impact those with outdoor holiday plans. Decent instability but rather weak shear will lend itself to mainly a damaging wind threat, with heavy rainfall and lightning also a concern. Rain chances will linger into Friday but push southward towards the Red River with the front through the day. Lower heights and central US troughing then appears to stick around into at least early next week, which should allow for occasional storm chances and temperatures near average for this time of year. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions will continue through at least mid-afternoon tomorrow. A low-level jet will result in low-level wind shear (LLWS) across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) tonight. Winds will veer toward the south-southwest and become gusty by mid to late tomorrow morning. These gusty winds will persist until sunset. There is chance showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front may impact northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) late afternoon into the evening. PROB30s were included to account for this. Elsewhere, the probability is too low to include in the TAFs (e.g., KCSM and KPNC). Strong, variable wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, hail, and brief reductions in visibility are possible in the most intense storms. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 101 79 101 80 / 0 10 10 10 Hobart OK 104 79 102 80 / 0 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 104 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 71 90 72 / 30 70 30 20 Ponca City OK 103 75 94 76 / 0 30 30 30 Durant OK 101 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...10