Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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507 FXUS64 KOUN 021916 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Frontal boundary currently across portions of the OK/TX Panhandle will gradually move into parts of NW OK later this afternoon. Storms will be possible near this boundary late this afternoon through tonight. Some of the storms could be severe late this afternoon and evening with inverted V soundings leading to a damaging wind threat. The potential for severe storms is expected to diminish after sunset. Rain chances will continue into Wednesday, generally along and north of I-40 with highest chances near the frontal boundary. Heat will continue to be a problem for parts of the fa Wednesday. Rain and clouds will lead to cooler temperatures (highs in the 80s/low 90s), especially for those areas north of the frontal boundary. For those areas south of the boundary triple digit highs will be possible with heat index values of 105+ possible. With this in mind, issued a heat advisory for areas generally along and S of I- 40. The higher heat index values could be possible in some areas north of I-40 but with uncertainty of where the boundary and/or rain/clouds held off on an advisory for now. Breezy, although not as strong as today, southerly winds will be possible in parts of the area Wednesday afternoon. This combined with some lower RH values (around 25%) and dry vegetation may lead to elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The previously mentioned storm chances will continue Wednesday evening. Once again some strong to severe storms could be possible although may depend on what occurs earlier in the day on Wednesday. The upper pattern shift that began today will continue with broad upper trough remaining over the central U.S. Models show a stronger cold front moving into the fa Thursday bringing chance for showers and storms. Strong/severe storms will be possible on Thursday as well. So for some, mother nature may provide the fireworks. The storm chances will continue into Friday but gradually shift towards the south as the front moves across the region. The heat will continue across at least parts of the fa Thursday ahead of the front. The stronger front Thursday is expected to then bring a bit of a reprieve from the heat with highs on Friday in the 80s. This reprieve is expected to continue over the weekend into early next week as the upper pattern stays the same and with another frontal boundary moving across the region late this weekend. Another round of showers/storms will also be possible with this front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Gusty south wind this afternoon with VFR conditions. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms by late this afternoon impacting WWR and later into the evening at PNC. Main impact with these would be strong erratic winds. Could see some of this activity linger through the night and into the morning hours on Wednesday. Farther south mainly some mid/high clouds with modest south winds continuing through 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 80 100 / 10 10 0 20 Hobart OK 80 102 80 102 / 10 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 80 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 70 90 72 97 / 60 50 20 10 Ponca City OK 75 91 75 100 / 30 40 20 30 Durant OK 79 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ023>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...30