Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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511 FXUS64 KOUN 031901 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 - Dangerous Heat Continues For One More Day - Thunderstorms May Impact Holiday Activities - Below Normal Temperatures Weekend and Next Week && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers continue along and just north of a stalled frontal boundary, located roughly from Cheyenne to Ponca City. While the showers won`t amount to too much in the rain gauge, the big factor from the front and cloud cover is the welcome change of pace with the temperatures. While afternoon temperatures are near 100 in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, the afternoon highs in the northwest portion of Oklahoma will remain in the low to mid 80s. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain for this evening, but the limiting factor is the cloud cover and lack of instability. Have retained low probability (20% or less) of thunderstorms tonight and overnight, which should be a repeat of what we saw yesterday: a few strong storms with winds being the main threat. Dangerous Heat continues for the southern and southwestern portions of the area this afternoon and again during the day on Independence Day. Air temperatures once again will be in the upper 90s to around 102. While this isn`t necessarily too bad for this time of year, dew point temperatures remain in the upper 60s/low 70s, making the heat and humidity combination a bit tough. A heat advisory remains in effect this afternoon and tomorrow, but signs in the extended are almost cause for celebration. Given the heat during the day on July 4th, we urge everyone to be cautious with outdoor activities and stay properly hydrated and safe on the 4th. Low PoPs (20% or less) will be in the forecast for the early part of the day, and into the early part of the afternoon. By peak heating (3-7 PM) thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, which won`t move much from this afternoon. PoPs then increase to around 30%, before increasing even further Thursday evening. Fox && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Thursday night will be tricky. Not necessarily different that the pattern we are in now, but the outdoor activities and Independence Day celebrations will cause headaches for public safety officials. Convective allowing models suggest thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and then show storms will drift southward. Unfortunately, none of these models are in good agreement in where things will form. Have therefore increased PoPs to around 50% for the central and southwestern portions of our area for now, and hope to have a better handle on the forecast by this time tomorrow. For any storms on Independence Day, there will be a low (5-15%) chance of storms becoming severe, with wind gusts near 60 mph being the primary severe threat. Lightning will be the main threat for outdoor activities, however. After Thursday, the forecast massively improves. High temperatures on Friday through Monday are expected to be near 90 (you read that right). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the highs will drop a bit more to the middle 80s. Thunderstorm chances increase to around 60% by Sunday night and early Monday. Fox && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected with mid/high clouds across at least parts of the area throughout much of the TAF period. Light showers will continue across portions of northern/west central OK this afternoon. Storm development will be possible late this afternoon into tonight mainly along and north of I-40. However, chances too low for mention in some of the TAFs at this time. Winds will be shifting throughout much of the TAF period with a shift towards the NE starting Thursday morning as a cold front begins to move across parts of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 71 88 / 10 30 40 30 Hobart OK 81 102 70 90 / 10 20 40 40 Wichita Falls TX 81 103 75 90 / 0 10 40 40 Gage OK 70 92 63 87 / 30 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 73 97 65 87 / 30 30 30 10 Durant OK 79 100 74 91 / 0 0 40 40 && Climate Notes: OKC only received a trace of rainfall between 2 and 3 AM Wednesday morning. The last measurable rainfall at our climate sites - Oklahoma City: 2.60" on June 4th Wichita Falls: 0.37: on June 11th Lawton: 0.11" on June 4th .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-018>020- 022>048-050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...25