Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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620 FXUS64 KOUN 041700 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Cold front continues to move across northern OK this morning. This front is expected to be in the vicinity of I-40 late this afternoon and will be the focus for storm development late afternoon into this evening. Severe storms will be possible with damaging winds, due to inverted-v profiles, and maybe some hail as the primary concerns. However, even if a storm is not severe, cloud to ground lightning will also pose a risk with all the outdoor activities going on today. Heat is another risk for today, especially for those areas that will remain ahead of the front until later this evening. The hot and humid conditions will lead to heat index values of 105+ across a large part of the fa. In southern OK and western north TX, heat index values of 110+ will be possible so these portions of the heat advisory were upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for this afternoon into early evening. So for those doing outdoor activities today prepare for the hot and humid conditions but also be aware that mother nature will likely be providing some fireworks of her own later today so keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to take shelter if need be from the storms. Otherwise, Happy 4th of July! && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The main weather stories today will be thunderstorms with potential to impact outdoor holiday events and the continuation of dangerous heat across much of the area. Starting with the heat, heat indices are expected to once again reach 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon across all but northwest Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas and those with outdoor plans this afternoon are reminded to stay hydrated and take breaks from the direct sun when possible. The aforementioned cold front will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, as early as 2 pm but most likely between 4 to 11 pm. Most of the CAMs suggest that development will occur first across west-central into north-central Oklahoma and progress southward through the evening, likely impacting July 4th celebrations and fireworks displays across portions of southwest into central Oklahoma. Please see our graphics for more detailed timing info. Given an environment characterized by PWATs at or above 2" and DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG, the main hazard with these storms will be strong to severe downburst winds. Lightning will also of course be a major concern for outdoor events this afternoon and evening. In addition to damaging winds, hail up to the size of golfballs will also be possible with the stronger storms. Finally, given high PWAT values storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall. Models suggest that additional storms could develop later tonight, mainly after midnight, across central and southern Oklahoma as the low-level jet and warm advection increases to the north of the surface boundary. This activity would also pose a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, but storm coverage is a bit more uncertain with this round. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers and storms will linger into Friday morning across central into southern portions of the area, with activity shifting southward through the day as the front continues its progress into Texas. Much welcome relief from the triple digit temperatures is expected behind the front on Friday, with highs only in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide, along with a much drier airmass. Near average temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend, with below average temperatures expected early next week behind another cold front which will move across the area Sunday and Sunday night. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms to much of the area. The synoptic pattern begins to somewhat resemble the conceptual model for a predecessor rainfall event Sunday into Monday as the right entrance region of the upper jet is positioned over the area and moisture associated with Hurricane Beryl pushes northward, potentially interacting with the boundary. These synoptic details could change as we are still several days out, but will have to watch this scenario for the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding. WPC has placed portions of our area under a "slight" risk for excessive rainfall during this period. Additional rainfall chances are possible through the middle of next week as the front washes out and tropical moisture lingers nearby. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. A cold front will continue to move across the area this afternoon and evening with storms expected to develop along the front starting in central OK and shift south with the front. Additional showers/storms will be possible north of the front overnight into Friday morning. Winds will also shift towards the N and NE behind the front otherwise S to SW winds expected ahead of the boundary. Gusty, variable winds will be possible near any storms late this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 100 71 89 67 / 60 50 10 0 Hobart OK 103 69 90 66 / 60 40 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 104 73 91 69 / 10 50 30 10 Gage OK 90 65 87 64 / 0 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 97 65 90 65 / 20 20 0 0 Durant OK 101 74 91 69 / 0 50 30 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>030-033-034. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031- 032-035>048-050>052. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25