Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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946 FXUS64 KOUN 061854 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding Possible on Sunday - At Least Two Rounds of Storms Expected through Monday - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Late tonight and Sunday remains on track to be the main concern in this forecast, as several things will come come together over Oklahoma an western north Texas. Synoptically, there`s a lot going on. For us, the biggest thing is a beautifully "cool" July day...with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 50s. Nice night expected for most of us, although there may be a stray thunderstorm or two in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle that may attempt to creep towards our area, but that possibility is low (less than 20%). Otherwise, there is Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico and a disturbance on the western coast of Mexico. Beryl continues to track generally northward...and while I could drone on and on about Beryl`s dynamics...the main concern for us is the influx of midlevel moisture. The unnamed disturbance in the Mexican state of Sonora is also acting as a moisture source for us in the mid and high levels, and this moisture is streaming to the northeast. Both of these features are easily diagnosed on the water vapor satellite channels. As the Sonoran disturbance moves northeast...and Beryl moves north, our total available moisture will go from a PW (preciptable water) of 1.07" on this morning`s OUN 12Z sounding...to a forecast amount of over 2" of PW in central and northern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. Surface dewpoints are expected to also jump to around 70 by 12Z Sunday as well. Safe to say that the moisture will be available, and all we need would be additional lift. Lift is expected to come from a couple of places. First, expect to see a MCS develop over the high plains of Kansas/Colorado after midnight and then make a run from NW to SE across our area through Noon Sunday. This will bring rain and gusty winds thundrestorm winds. Then, while minor waves move northeast from Mexico, an upper level trough will swing through the southern plains Sunday afternoon, providing the necessary (and stronger) lift for additional thunderstorms to develop. This secondary batch of storms is expected to be the strongest, with embedded supercell thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours. This will bring a QLCS threat, a potential for severe hail, and heavy rainfall and flooding. Fox && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Once we get past Sunday, things won`t necessarily be quiet, but at least the remainder of the week will have fewer forecasting headaches. Rain will begin to end late Sunday and early Monday, and Monday`s high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s the southern portion of Oklahoma/north Texas. Otherwise, highs in the 80s for early July can`t be beat. Normal or slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the rest of the work week, with highs finally rising to the lower 90s by Friday. Fox && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will continue through this evening with south to southeast winds. Overnight into Sunday morning, a complex of thunderstorms will likely affect northern Oklahoma with the greatest impacts expected from KWWR to KPNC/KSWO. There is a chance of impacts as far south as KCSM to KOKC, but confidence is not as high at these terminals (PROB30s were included at these terminals). Gusty and variable winds along with reductions in visibility (IFR conditions) are possible in the most intense thunderstorms. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 89 66 81 / 20 40 80 60 Hobart OK 72 92 66 82 / 20 50 80 70 Wichita Falls TX 73 98 68 85 / 0 10 50 50 Gage OK 67 85 63 82 / 80 70 70 40 Ponca City OK 67 83 65 83 / 30 70 80 50 Durant OK 71 95 68 87 / 0 0 40 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...10