189
FXUS64 KOUN 070752
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Complex of storms across northern Oklahoma will continue to move
south and southeast this morning. Strong wind gusts will continue
with to occur with the strongest cells and some isolated heavy
rainfall will also be possible. Models are not handling this
activity well as most either do not have the convection or dissipate
it. Appears that it will not dissipate anytime soon and may trek all
the way across northern and portions of central Oklahoma this
morning.

Still think that this will move off and focus will shift back to the
north and northwest for this afternoon as additional convection is
expected to develop along synoptic boundary there during the peak
heating of the afternoon hours.

Deep layer shear will be supportive of some embedded supercell
structures, especially early on, when more cellular or isolated
cells are expected. Even with upper 60 dewpoints, higher LCLs should
limit overall tornado risk, but cannot rule one out across
western/northwestern Oklahoma near the low level boundaries this
afternoon. However large hail and damaging winds will be possible
and the main hazards early on. Upscale growth into a larger
complex(MCS) of storms is expected as we go into the evening hours
with a transition to more of a damaging wind threat, along with
heavy rainfall as PWATs will be near climatological max. This
complex will then translate southward across much of the area
overnight Sunday night with a continued wind and heavy rain threat.
Flood Watch has already been issued and will maintain the watch
through early Monday morning.

Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler across the north today with
expected precip and cloud cover with warmer readings across the
south, where far southwest Oklahoma and north Texas could flirt with
the century mark. This gradient will also be there for tonight as
the north will see temps in the lower 60s to near 70 along with Red
river.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Precip chances continue Monday, with the higher chances across the
south by afternoon. Also continue to track remnants of Beryl as it
moves north and northeast across eastern Texas and then into the
Arklatex region into Monday night. This moisture will skirt
southeast Oklahoma Monday night. However, much of the western half
to two-thirds of the state, being on the western/subsident side of
the system should see minimal impacts.

Trough axis then translates to our east as we go into the middle of
the week with a slow warm up and only minimal rain chances. Most of
the area should be back into the 90s for afternoon highs by weeks
end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected over the
northern half of Oklahoma from around sunrise Sunday and into the
evening. A cold front will move into this part of the state with
severe storms possible and very heavy rain. VFR conditions outside
of thunderstorms will become MVFR in rain and showers later in the
period. Rain and storms will pass into the southern half of
Oklahoma during the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  67  81  66 /  70  80  60  30
Hobart OK         95  66  82  64 /  50  80  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  98  68  84  68 /  10  60  70  20
Gage OK           86  63  81  60 /  70  70  40  20
Ponca City OK     80  65  83  64 /  80  80  40  20
Durant OK         96  69  84  68 /  10  60  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday morning
     for OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09