Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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401 FXUS64 KOUN 011713 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 After a brief respite from the heat in northern Oklahoma yesterday, we are back to the heat areawide today. The main question is how much will dewpoints mix out across the west and central sections of the forecast area. Dewpoints in the 70s look to stay in eastern portions of the area, but a lot of the models are mixing the moisture out with more veered winds and drier air above the surface. NBM populated dewpoints on the high side of the guidance envelope and given the tendency to keep somewhat higher dewpoints last week, we will go with keeping the NBM`s higher dewpoints at least through the central third of the area. This gives us forecast heat index values of 105 or higher from roughly Cherokee to Lawton to Frederick to Archer City and east, and have expanded the Heat Advisory west to incorporate the remainder of these areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The heat continues for the next few days. Temperatures look to be warmer Tuesday compared to today, but current indications are dewpoints/humidity may be a little lower to somewhat counteract it for heat index values. Overall, the heat continues through at least Thursday. As a mid-level trough moves through the northern and central Plains and the mid-level high shifts east into the Southeastern U.S., a front will move down through Kansas Tuesday and at least approach the border or perhaps move into northern Oklahoma, and there will be some potential of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with this front in or just north of the Kansas border. If the front does move into northern Oklahoma, temperatures will not be quite as hot in the north on Wednesday... but the rest of the area will still be hot. And the front will wash out and/or lift back north Wednesday night. But a stronger mid-level wave moves through the Plains later in the week and helps push a cooler airmass down the Plains, and it currently looks like the front should push through the forecast area Friday. This will bring both higher chances of showers and storms and a break from the high heat with temperatures currently forecast to be closer to or slightly below the early July average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon with only a minimal decrease overnight before they become stronger Tuesday morning. Some gusts over 30kts possible across the west on Tuesday. Otherwise, a few afternoon fair-weather cu expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 99 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 101 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 102 80 105 80 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 99 78 102 72 / 0 0 10 40 Ponca City OK 99 79 102 77 / 10 0 0 20 Durant OK 99 78 101 80 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...30