511
FXUS64 KOUN 031901
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
201 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

 - Dangerous Heat Continues For One More Day

 - Thunderstorms May Impact Holiday Activities

 - Below Normal Temperatures Weekend and Next Week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers continue along and just north of a stalled frontal
boundary, located roughly from Cheyenne to Ponca City. While the
showers won`t amount to too much in the rain gauge, the big factor
from the front and cloud cover is the welcome change of pace with
the temperatures. While afternoon temperatures are near 100 in
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, the afternoon highs in
the northwest portion of Oklahoma will remain in the low to mid
80s. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain for this evening, but
the limiting factor is the cloud cover and lack of instability.
Have retained low probability (20% or less) of thunderstorms
tonight and overnight, which should be a repeat of what we saw
yesterday: a few strong storms with winds being the main threat.

Dangerous Heat continues for the southern and southwestern
portions of the area this afternoon and again during the day on
Independence Day. Air temperatures once again will be in the upper
90s to around 102. While this isn`t necessarily too bad for this
time of year, dew point temperatures remain in the upper 60s/low
70s, making the heat and humidity combination a bit tough. A heat
advisory remains in effect this afternoon and tomorrow, but signs
in the extended are almost cause for celebration.

Given the heat during the day on July 4th, we urge everyone to be
cautious with outdoor activities and stay properly hydrated and
safe on the 4th.

Low PoPs (20% or less) will be in the forecast for the early part
of the day, and into the early part of the afternoon. By peak
heating (3-7 PM) thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front, which won`t move much from this afternoon. PoPs then
increase to around 30%, before increasing even further Thursday
evening.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday night will be tricky. Not necessarily different that the
pattern we are in now, but the outdoor activities and Independence
Day celebrations will cause headaches for public safety officials.
Convective allowing models suggest thunderstorm development
Thursday afternoon and then show storms will drift southward.
Unfortunately, none of these models are in good agreement in
where things will form. Have therefore increased PoPs to around
50% for the central and southwestern portions of our area for now,
and hope to have a better handle on the forecast by this time
tomorrow.

For any storms on Independence Day, there will be a low (5-15%)
chance of storms becoming severe, with wind gusts near 60 mph
being the primary severe threat. Lightning will be the main threat
for outdoor activities, however.

After Thursday, the forecast massively improves. High temperatures
on Friday through Monday are expected to be near 90 (you read
that right). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the highs will drop a bit
more to the middle 80s. Thunderstorm chances increase to around
60% by Sunday night and early Monday.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected with mid/high clouds across at least
parts of the area throughout much of the TAF period. Light showers
will continue across portions of northern/west central OK this
afternoon. Storm development will be possible late this afternoon
into tonight mainly along and north of I-40. However, chances too
low for mention in some of the TAFs at this time. Winds will be
shifting throughout much of the TAF period with a shift towards
the NE starting Thursday morning as a cold front begins to move
across parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79 101  71  88 /  10  30  40  30
Hobart OK         81 102  70  90 /  10  20  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  81 103  75  90 /   0  10  40  40
Gage OK           70  92  63  87 /  30  20  30  20
Ponca City OK     73  97  65  87 /  30  30  30  10
Durant OK         79 100  74  91 /   0   0  40  40

&&

Climate Notes: OKC only received a trace of rainfall between 2 and
3 AM Wednesday morning. The last measurable rainfall at our
climate sites -

Oklahoma City: 2.60" on June 4th
Wichita Falls: 0.37: on June 11th
Lawton: 0.11" on June 4th


.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-018>020-
     022>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...25