Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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614 FXUS64 KOUN 042323 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 We haven`t seen measurable rainfall at OKC for a month now, with the last rainfall occurring at Will Rogers on June 4th. Can say the same for Lawton, but Wichita Falls` last measurable rain was June 11th. Naturally, this streak may come to an end on a day that most of us would like to remain rain free. While human nature is what it is, the atmosphere has some other ideas. There`s a cold front draped across central and northern Oklahoma, roughly along and north of I-40 in western Oklahoma, to near Stillwater and then northeast to Bartlesville. This front will be a focus point for thunderstorms to develop between 3 and 6 PM...and is generally in the same vicinity as a theta-e ridge at 700mb, which may help enhance moisture convergence even further. This forecast attempts to marry the SREF and HRRR solutions, increasing hourly PoPs twice, once along the front/700 theta-e ridge...and again a few hours later along the 850mb frontogenetical band. This is putting a lot of stock in some of the convective allowing models, yet so far the observations would suggest the CAMs are on the right track with the processes, but a bit off on the important details. The front is a bit further south than where the high resolution models would suggest, so highest PoPs have been adjusted southward. Best potential for convective development appears to be along and just south of I-40 around 2PM...with thunderstorms affecting outdoor plans for a few hours. Around midnight, another area of storms is expected to develop...about 50-70 miles north of where the initial thunderstorms develop. Some storms may become severe, with wind gusts being the main severe hazard...although lightning will be the main hazard for everyone. Afternoon highs today will be near 100 or slightly above in the southwest...and only in the 80s near the Kansas border. Tomorrow, all of us should see highs in the 80s...or maybe the lower 90s. We can therefore say goodbye to heat advisories and excessive heat warnings for at least a week. Fox && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Temperatures slightly increase on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the lower 90s...still warm, but not nearly as hot and humid as what we have seen earlier this week. Long wave trough will move across the area, giving a low shot at thunderstorms in the late afternoon/early evening hours during the weekend, with Sunday having the highest probability (40-60%) occurring Sunday afternoon and evening. Point forecast soundings suggest precipitable water values close to 2" Sunday afternoon and evening, which is in the top 10% of climatological values for early July. (Mean for July 7th is 1.38"), so the atmosphere would be primed for the potential for localized heavy rainfall for those lucky (unlucky?) enough to be under any thunderstorm core Sunday. Plenty of time between now and then to dive into the details. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast period appears to be slightly less hot than normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Fox && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A cold front will slowly move from central through southern Oklahoma tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will occur at central and southern Oklahoma TAF sites this evening. Gusty north winds will follow briefly before diminishing generally under 12 knots overnight. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 87 66 91 / 60 20 0 10 Hobart OK 70 87 65 92 / 50 50 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 72 88 70 93 / 60 40 10 10 Gage OK 64 84 62 91 / 30 20 10 20 Ponca City OK 65 87 65 93 / 10 0 0 10 Durant OK 74 88 70 94 / 50 50 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>030-033-034. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031- 032-035>048-050>052. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...09