Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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426 FXUS64 KOUN 060029 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 729 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s in the rain cooled air in the southwest and southern parts of our forecast area, while the highest temperature that can be found was 83 in Enid. The normal low temperature for July 5th is 70. In other words, enjoy the cooler temperatures. Overnight, the lows will drop to the mid 60s areawide before rebounding to near 90 degrees for the high temperatures on Saturday. While warm, 90 is below normal for our part of the world, but only by a few degrees. Lingering rain continues to occur more or less east and south of I-44 and will continue to drift southeast for the next few hours. Expect a few showers to remain after 0Z, but the rain won`t last for long, leading to a rain free Saturday for most of us. Fox && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The headaches begin late Saturday and again on Sunday. While most of us will be rain free on Saturday, during the overnight hours, there will likely be another MCS developing to our west and northwest, approaching western Oklahoma in the early morning hours of Sunday. Sunday afternoon, there is a two for one offering for thunderstorm hazards, first severe, and then heavy rainfall/possible flooding. First - the severe potential Sunday: With the late night Saturday/early Sunday MCS, expect mainly a wind threat for the region. However, a few of the CAMs suggest enough SFC-6km shear near 30 knots, which could give rise to a few supercell structures within the complex. Granted, this is shaving the details extremely thin in a 50+ hour forecast, so will continue to look at the possibilies over the next several model runs. Bottom line - there will be some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening. Second - the heavy rainfall potential Sunday: Locally heavy rain Sunday and early Monday looks to be a good bet across the forecast area. What remains to be seen is exactly where the impacts from heavy rainfall will be. Precipitable water values are forecast to be over 2" in the north and northwest, from OKC to Woodward. While this doesn`t sound too terribly high, this is well above the 95% percentile for the sounding climatology in Oklahoma. With high anomalies of moisture, and abundant lift we should not have much trouble getting rainfall to occur, and efficient rainfall producers at that. Current forecast is for a wide swath of central and northern Oklahoma to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall, according to the latest data. Have considered doing a flood watch for a fairly large part of the area based on this, but have opted to wait and see if we can narrow down the locations before issuance. Plus, expecting any flooding to be additive (rainfall early Sunday will affect who gets/doesn`t get flooding on Sunday night) and confidence is too low for now. The key is "for now." I would expect later shifts to be issuing some sort of flood watch on Saturday as the details get refined. After the rain ends during the daytime hours on Monday, things will slowly return to normal. Afternoon highs will slowly increase to the mid and upper 90s by the end of next week. Fox && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected. Light northeast to east wind will become south in western Oklahoma Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 66 90 70 / 80 10 0 10 Hobart OK 79 64 90 71 / 80 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 78 68 91 72 / 70 20 10 0 Gage OK 84 62 89 66 / 20 10 0 30 Ponca City OK 88 65 91 69 / 10 10 0 10 Durant OK 88 70 91 70 / 60 40 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...09