112
FXUS61 KOKX 070050
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
850 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front stalls over or near the area through Monday. A
series of frontal boundaries will impact the region for much of
the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Adjusted POPs such that chances for showers and thunderstorms
are mainly south of Long Island with otherwise just a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms has been pretty limited going into this evening
with a lack of forcing but a moist low level environment remains
in place and with elevated instability any even small increase
in forcing will allow for a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms. As mentioned below, the forcing is not expected
to increase.

A weakening frontal boundary will likely stall over the area
tonight. This boundary will be the focus for some showers and
thunderstorms early tonight, mainly south of Long Island.
Although there will be plenty of moisture (with dew points in
the 70s) as well as instability (at least elevated, forecast
soundings show a pretty decent inversion over the area, so
anything that develops would have to be elevated), a limiting
factor for convection would be lift. With the front weakening,
forecast soundings show not a lot of lift to work with.
Additionally, shear looks to be weakening as well. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms therefore looks to further
decrease throughout tonight, and though something strong to
severe could develop, especially north and west of NYC, chances
do not look overly impressive.

Very humid conditions continue overnight. This will lead to the
development of fog once again. Already seeing fog develop across
eastern parts of the forecast region with patches of dense fog
where visibilities are reduced to a quarter mile or less. SPS is
out to address this for the rest of tonight. The patchy dense
fog will likely continue into early Sunday morning. Will have to
monitor to see if more dense fog develops, especially overnight
into daybreak.

Warm overnight lows expected. Middle to upper 70s across NYC and NE
NJ and lower 70s for most other location. Middle to upper 60s are
expected across much of the Lower Hudson Valley, though this might
be dependent on the location of the front. If it has a tougher time
making its way through and remains just west of the area tonight,
the lows across the Lower Hudson Valley could be a few degrees
warmer than forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The front remains near or over the region on Sunday. Outside of some
lingering showers and thunderstorms for eastern areas early in the
morning, it should be mainly dry. An isolated shower or
thunderstorms is possible, mainly across Long Island and southeast CT
as some of the CAMs are showing some development for Sunday.
However, the lift continues to look weak, and the precipitation
looks to be more stratiform than convective in some of the models,
but overall light.

Highs may be slightly higher as compared to Saturday, especially
away from the coast, as a weak westerly flow may allow for some
downsloping. However, dew points will be lower, in the upper 60s for
the western half of the forecast area. Therefore, only isolated
spots are expected to reach heat indices of 95-99 and the Heat
Advisories were not extended into Sunday. Closer to the coast, sea
breezes develop, and while they are going to be more humid,
especially eastern areas, temperatures will not be as warm. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for metro NYC and the
interior, while lower to middle 80s are expected for eastern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore on Monday, with mostly dry conditions
expected. Southerly flow will help allow temperatures to rise into
the middle 80s to lower 90s.

A frontal boundary approaches the region Tuesday, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for any precipitation
will be from NYC and points north and west.

The front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into
Wednesday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms
continuing. Another front approaches late week, keeping the chances
for showers and storms in the forecast. Hard to pinpoint exactly
where any storms fire up each day, so will generally keep pops a
chance for much of the long term. The only exception will be Tuesday
afternoon/evening, where POPs to increased to likely.

Temperatures each day will be in either the 80s or lower 90s, with
the warmest day of the week on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slow moving frontal system dissipates over the terminals through
Sunday.

Mainly VFR to start with KISP and KGON remaining IFR. Isolated
showers and possibly a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this
evening, mainly east of the NYC terminals, but not enough confidence
to put in TAF. IFR, potentially LIFR, is expected to continue
overnight into early Sunday morning across Long Island and southeast
CT terminals. Some IFR may reach JFK briefly around day break and
potentially KBDR and KHPN. Otherwise, VFR prevails on Sunday.

S-SSW winds under 10 kt this evening will become SW and weaken to
around 5 kt overnight. Light flow, possibly NE, will occur Sunday
morning before shifting to the SE-S late morning into the afternoon
10 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower possible through 01z.

IFR ceiling timing for JFK may be off by 1-3 hours. MVFR/IFR briefly
possible at LGA early Sunday morning, but not expected to reach EWR
and TEB.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR possible eastern Long Island and
southeast CT.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Thursday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with
showers/thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the ocean waters and
South Shore Bays tonight. Patchy dense fog is present across
parts of Eastern Long Island Sound and ocean waters east of Fire
Island as well as parts of the Long Island Bays where
visibilities will be reduced to less than 1 nautical mile. A
marine weather statement is out to address this.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria from Sandy Hook to
Fire Island as well as the non-ocean waters. SCA continues over
the other ocean zones through 8 am Sunday morning. However, if
conditions lower quicker than forecast, SCA will likely come
down earlier. Otherwise, SCA is not expected for the rest of
Sunday and Sunday night.

Dense fog over the waters is possible tonight into early Sunday
morning with a humid air mass in place. Will have to monitor for
this possibility.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the
waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds
Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
While flash flooding is not out of the question as any thunderstorms
tonight will have the potential to produce heavy rain, the
potential for flash flooding looks lower than in previous
forecasts, especially with the lower potential for convection.

Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a
chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as
potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches, continuing into
this evening.

For Sunday, a moderate rip current risk is forecast for the ocean
beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around 3-4
ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous day but
with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft, there will be
a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM