267
FXUS61 KOKX 072337
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes nearby into tonight. A cold front approaches
Tuesday and begins to move through the area Tuesday night. The
front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week leading to
unsettled conditions, potentially into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The center of the remnants of what was TS Chantal are spinning
over the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay early this afternoon,
passing off the Delmarva this evening and skirting south of
Long Island tonight.

A deep tropical air mass has advected in with high pressure over
the Atlantic helping steer the plume north. 12Z OKX sounding
found a PWAT over 2 inches this morning, and moisture
convergence along a surface trough located just to the west of
the area will continue to serve as the primary focus for shower
and thunderstorm development into this evening.

Given the depth of the moisture, soundings are supportive of
efficient, warm rain processes, and MLCAPE values are over 1000
J/kg, torrential downpours are likely with any activity that
develops. 12Z HREF 3-hr QPF continues to offer at least a 10
percent risk of 3 inches in 3 hours for parts of NE NJ late this
afternoon, also where FFG values are lowest in the region. WPC
has expanded the slight risk for excessive rainfall for this
same area.

Elsewhere, showers possible, but coverage looks to be lower and
perhaps just isolated. Locally a quick inch or two possible with
the downpours, particularly west of the Hudson, but basin QPF
should average under a half inch, and some locales may see
little to no rainfall through tonight. Activity diminishes this
evening as the remnant low passes south and east of the region,
and conditions tonight remain mild and muggy, with the
potential for areas of patchy fog to develop. Temperatures
remain in the 70s everywhere overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the remnants of Chantal exiting our to sea, a
cold front back to the west begins to approach through the day
on Tuesday.

Deep tropical moisture remains in place ahead of the front, and
showers and thunderstorms look to develop once again into the
afternoon hours as the boundary approaches. The main concern
will once again be torrential downpours and localized flash
flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk to now include the
entire local area, indicating isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding are possible.

Also can`t rule out a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms,
with damaging wind gusts the main threat. SPC has much of the
area in a marginal risk, with a slight just off to the south and
west over NJ. Given tall CAPE profiles in a weak shear, uncapped
environment, there is potential for an isolated downburst or
two. Latest hires CAMs develop clusters of convection by mid
afternoon across the I95 corridor from the Mid Atlantic and into
the local Tri State, before propagating east into the early
evening.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, temperatures on
Tuesday may be able to achieve lower 90s across the urban
corridor of NE NJ and NYC, especially if enough clearing occurs
early in the day before convection initiates. Given dew pts into
the 70s, peak heat indices are progged around 100F and a heat
advisory was hoisted for NYC, most of NE NJ, southern
Westchester, and Nassau Co. Elsewhere, marginal advisory
criteria is possible, but think values largely remain more in
the mid to upper 90s.

Precipitation diminishes overnight, but the advancing front
slows and potentially stalls over the area Tuesday night, and
conditions remain mild and muggy with temperatures only falling
back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The NBM was followed with minor local adjustments.

Key Points:

*  A stalled front south of the area will remain in the general
   vicinity through the weekend.

*  Each day will present a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
   with the overall highest chances from roughly late Wednesday
   night through Thursday night.

*  Temperatures should be right around average for this time of the
   year with highs each day in the lower and middle 80s.
.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure passes to the south tonight. A cold front
approaches late tonight and remains in the vicinity through
the TAF period.

MVFR to IFR conditions move back in tonight, mainly for eastern
terminals, with better conditions as you head west. KJFK may
see brief IFR conditions, while KEWR will likely remain VFR.

Thunder is likely done for the day, with some lingering showers
possible through the evening hours for NYC north and west.
Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday afternoon with some
uncertainty in exact timing and coverage. Kept PROB30 for now.

Winds become light and variable once again tonight. A SW to WSW
wind sets up Tuesday at around 10 kt by mid to late morning.
Given the nearby front there is more uncertainty than usual with
wind direction starting Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible overnight with changes in flight category in low
stratus/fog.

More uncertainty than usual with wind direction Tuesday
afternoon given nearby front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: MVFR possible.

Wednesday through Friday: Afternoon and evening showers/tstms
possible each day, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas build toward 5 ft tonight with a SE swell on Atlantic
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and a Small Craft
Advisory was hoisted here from 6Z Tue thru 6Z Wed.

Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
criteria much of the week, and potentially through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Torrential downpours are possible into this evening with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across NE NJ,
NYC metro, and Lower Hudson Valley. This could lead to areas of
nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding. WPC has NE NJ
in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with NYC and the Lower
Hudson Valley outlined in a marginal risk.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
could once again produce locally heavy rainfall that leads to
flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk across the entire local
region. A marginal risk remains in place for much of the area
on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk through this evening on all ocean beaches continues to
be moderate with 2-3 foot surf heights. For Tuesday, the risk
increases to high with surf heights around 5 feet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004-006-
     104>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...