047
FXUS61 KOKX 070607
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary stalls over or near the area through Monday.
A series of frontal boundaries will impact the region for much
of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Much of the area will remain dry tonight, but will still carry
a slight chance PoP across eastern Long Island in case an
isolated cell develops. However, instability is diminishing and
the environment is becoming less favorable.

Otherwise. very humid conditions continue overnight. Areas of
fog continue to persist across eastern LI/SE CT, with some of
it being dense. SPS is in effect for the time to account for the
hazard. Should it become more widespread, a dense fog advisory
may be needed. Rest of the area may see patchy fog but some
drier air filtering in behind weak a cold front should keep it
from becoming widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The front remains near or over the region on Sunday. Outside of some
lingering showers and thunderstorms for eastern areas early in the
morning, it should be mainly dry. An isolated shower or
thunderstorms is possible, mainly across Long Island and southeast CT
as some of the CAMs are showing some development for Sunday.
However, the lift continues to look weak, and the precipitation
looks to be more stratiform than convective in some of the models,
but overall light.

Highs may be slightly higher as compared to Saturday, especially
away from the coast, as a weak westerly flow may allow for some
downsloping. However, dew points will be lower, in the upper 60s for
the western half of the forecast area. Therefore, only isolated
spots are expected to reach heat indices of 95-99 and the Heat
Advisories were not extended into Sunday. Closer to the coast, sea
breezes develop, and while they are going to be more humid,
especially eastern areas, temperatures will not be as warm. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for metro NYC and the
interior, while lower to middle 80s are expected for eastern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore on Monday, with mostly dry conditions
expected. Southerly flow will help allow temperatures to rise into
the middle 80s to lower 90s.

A frontal boundary approaches the region Tuesday, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for any precipitation
will be from NYC and points north and west.

The front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into
Wednesday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms
continuing. Another front approaches late week, keeping the chances
for showers and storms in the forecast. Hard to pinpoint exactly
where any storms fire up each day, so will generally keep pops a
chance for much of the long term. The only exception will be Tuesday
afternoon/evening, where POPs to increased to likely.

Temperatures each day will be in either the 80s or lower 90s, with
the warmest day of the week on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal system stalls near or over the terminals through
Sunday.

NYC terminals are still VFR, but KJFK and KLGA may drop to IFR
before daybreak for a few hours, before becoming VFR again after
12Z. KGON will be socked in the rest of the night and early
morning at LIFR, with VLIFR, at times. Improvement there around
14Z to MVFR in haze. KISP will be IFR to LIFR through 12Z, then
becoming VFR. Will see a repeat Sunday night with more LIFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable
enough to include in TAFs.

Light southerly winds expected tonight and early Sunday morning
with many terminals light and variable. Light flow, possibly
NE, will occur Sunday morning before shifting to the SE-S late
morning into the afternoon 10 kt or less. Winds become light
and variable again Sunday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence in lower ceilings occurring and their timing at KJFK
and KLGA is low early SUnday morning. Amendments may be needed.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable
enough to include in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Thursday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with
showers/thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Some locally dense fog remains possible, mainly across Eastern
Long Island Sound and ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. A
marine weather statement is out to address this.

The SCA east of Moriches remains in effect until 8 am. However,
if conditions lower quicker than forecast, SCA will likely come
down earlier. Otherwise, SCA conditions are not expected for
the rest of Sunday and Sunday night.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the
waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds
Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday night.

Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a
chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as
potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast Sunday at the ocean
beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around
3-4 ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous
day but with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft,
there will be a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC/JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...