364
FXUS61 KOKX 260915
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
515 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves northeast of the area this morning. A cold
front then approaches from the west, moving across late tonight
into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday night
and moves over the region late in the day Friday. A warm front
lifts north of the area Saturday. A cold front then moves
through on Sunday with high pressure building in for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level trough moves out of the northern plains this
moving and amplifies through the Great Lakes region and moves
toward the east coast late in the day. The upper trough then
moves off the northeast and mid Atlantic coast late tonight.

Meanwhile a warm front across upstate New York into eastern
Pennsylvania will move across the region this morning. The area
then become warm sectored as the surface low moves well to the
north of the region. A southwesterly flow brings in warmer and
more humid air into the region. While the area will be warm and
humid heat indices are expected to peak into the lower and mid
90s, and heat advisories are not expected to be needed. A few
of the CAMs are showing the possibility o widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms later this morning as the airmass
destabilizes and a pre frontal trough develops. There is some
uncertainty as to how much CAPE there will be during peak
heating and at the time of the upper trough and surface cold
front. Instability may be more elevated by this evening, and
bulk shear increases to 40 to around 50 kt, mainly across the
interior. There is still a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
across the lower Hudson Valley and into southwestern Connecticut
and southward into northeastern New Jersey, New York City and
possible into western portions of Suffolk county. The primary
threat will be for damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into
this evening, and there is a possibility of large hail. Also, an
axis of heavier rain is possible across the lower Hudson Valley
into southwestern Connecticut.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The surface cold front and upper trough will be exiting the
region early Thursday morning, probability by 12Z. The surface
low will be slowly tracking northward Thursday and the trailing
cold front may linger just to the east and south of Long Island
through much of Thursday. High pressure will be slow to build
east as the upper trough remains across the northeast into
Friday morning. There is a chance showers linger longer into
Thursday morning, however, once the front moves east dry weather
is then expected. However, clearing across the far eastern areas
may be slowed.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pushes off the New England Coast late in the day Friday into
Friday night, allowing a warm front to lift north of the area
Saturday. An unsettled pattern sets up Saturday night and Sunday as
a prefrontal trough and cold front move through. Some timing
differences with the models this far out, but for the most part,
they are generally 3 to 6 hours apart in the passage of the main
cold front late in the day Sunday into late Sunday night. High
pressure then builds in for Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will
be associated with the prefrontal trough and cold frontal passages
with MUCAPE values well over 1000 J/kg on Sunday.

The quick return flow Friday night and the approach and passage of a
warm front into Saturday will mean humidity levels on the rise, with
humid conditions Saturday and more so into Sunday. They then come
down again after the passage of the cold fronts Sunday, with
comfortable levels for most by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning as a cold front
approaches tonight which moves through late tonight into Thursday
morning.

VFR prevails. Possible MVFR conditions in association with any
thunderstorms towards evening PROB30 groups for TSRA towards 02-05Z
for the western and city terminals with arrival of pre- frontal
trough. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms prior
to this time frame, but coverage was not high enough to include in
TAFs. Best chance for these showers and thunderstorms is for city
terminals and points north and west for this afternoon. Any TSRA
that develops may contain strong gusty winds or hail, mainly for the
associated with the showers and thunderstorms this evening.

SW increase today 10 to around 15 kt, with gusts in the afternoon of
15 to around 20 kt for most terminals. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are
possible. Sea breeze development expected for most coastal terminals
Wed afternoon, shifting winds more to the S. A shift to the W is
then expected late in the TAF period as the cold front moves
through, but this off +/- a couple of hours than forecast due to
uncertainty in the actual cold frontal passage.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected through daybreak and much of
this morning.

Amendments expected with arrival time of t-storms this afternoon
into tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and isolated
thunderstorms that may move through towards daybreak Thursday. SW
winds shifting to the W, then NW with passage of the cold front.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a strong and gusty southwest flow ahead of a cold front,
winds and seas on the ocean waters remain at SCA levels today
and into tonight. With winds shifting to the northwest and
diminishing ocean seas fall below advisory levels late tonight,
and may remain elevated into early Thursday morning east of Fire
Island Inlet. With the southerly strong gusts a SCA remain in
effect until late tonight for the Long Island south shore bays.
Then sub advisory conditions remain through Friday. For the non
ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels today
through Friday.

Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from Friday
night through Saturday night. However, there is the potential
for SCA winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases
across the waters. Waves build on the ocean, but shouldn`t reach
5 ft until late Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall is forecast late today through
early Thursday morning. Locally higher amounts will be
possible, especially across the lower Hudson Valley into
southwestern Connecticut. Flooding of low lying, and poor
drainage areas is possible. Localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out.

No hydrologic concerns Thursday night through the beginning of
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches today through early Thursday morning. The rip current
risk likely lowers to moderate later Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...