103
FXUS61 KOKX 130006
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains along the New England coast into Sunday
morning, then drifts east through Monday as a cold front moves
into the region late Monday. The frontal boundary likely
remains just offshore through mid week. Another frontal system
may then impact the area towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains along the New England coast
tonight with a light flow across the region, and a warm and
humid airmass remaining in place. Any convection across the
Lower Hudson Valley will be weakening and dissipating early this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Any storms that do
develop will be slow moving, and have the potential to produce
briefly heavy rainfall. With the airmass in place, and a light
southerly flow, low clouds are expected to develop along and
offshore of the coast, and drift inland late tonight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any low clouds and possibly fog will dissipate Sunday morning
as low level mixing increases.

The surface high off the New England coast drifts east late
Sunday into Monday as the upper ridge axis moves offshore and
heights gradually fall with the approach of an upper trough.
Much of the energy with the trough will be passing to the north
during Monday, and the trough weakens. A weak, and weakening
cold front moves into the region either late Monday or Monday
evening. And a warm and humid airmass remains through Monday,
becoming unstable late morning into the afternoon with CAPE
increasing to over 1000 J/kg. Precipitable water values will be
around 2 inches Monday. With the weakening front, and little
forcing convection will be more scattered, and opted for areal
coverage wording. There will once again be the potential for any
of the storms to produce briefly heavy rainfall, however the
steering flow does increase Monday, and storms are expected to
be moving southeast 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is at least potential for
 a heat wave Tuesday through Friday for many areas with Max Heat
 Index values each day between 95 and 100 (Heat Advisory
 criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of
 afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front will just be passing through at the start of the long
term period. This boundary will likely stall just offshore and
linger for several days. A frontal system may then impact the area
later in the week. Aloft, the pattern stays the same through the
period. Although we are under some high heights, we are somewhat on
the eastern end of a broad upper level trough centered over central
Canada and few shortwaves likely pass through.

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of
moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high
temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave. NBM dewpoints
are likely too high but even after manually lowering afternoon
dewpoints when mixing is expected still seeing some 95-100 heat
index values. However, there still is uncertainty especially given
the potential for convection and slight inconsistencies in a late
week frontal system among the guidance.

Too early to talk specifics when it comes to severe or flooding
concerns with the aforementioned convection. These details will be
ironed over the next few days. There is plenty of moisture around
with pwats 1.75-2.00+ for much of the period so any convection that
does develop will likely be able to produce heavy downpours. As for
severe, while we are pretty unstable, shear looks weak through much
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place offshore through Sunday.

Mostly MVFR tonight. Some IFR mainly east of the city terminals.
For Sunday, conds improve to VFR for most by noon. All but KGON
likely eventually improve to VFR.

SE winds under 10kt, becoming light and variable or a light
E flow overnight. SE winds for Sunday at around 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Moderate confidence in conds lowering to at least MVFR for all
terminals, however lower confidence in IFR chances and timing.
For KJFK, IFR might not occur at all, or prevail for a few hours
overnight. For KLGA/KEWR/KTEB, tempo IFR cigs possible for a few
hours after midnight. If IFR occurs at any of these 3 terminals,
chances are that it won`t prevail for more than a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Mostly MVFR, but IFR possible east of the city
terminals.

Monday: MVFR or lower in the afternoon and early evening with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves likely remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight through next week.
However, a relatively active pattern is expected next week with
chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for several
days. Winds and waves will be higher in any storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley Sunday
afternoon have the potential of producing localized heavy
rainfall as the storms will be slow moving. And any potential
flooding will also be localized. For Monday, there is a chance
of minor flooding with heavy rainfall potential across a larger
area as a cold front approaches during the day. However, any
flooding will be localized. At this time there are no hydrologic
concerns Monday night through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk on Sunday is moderate with an onshore flow
near 10 kt, a 3-4 ft swell from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec,
and an added long period onshore swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC