007
FXUS64 KOHX 031138
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level ridge has built in over the southeast and that is going
to bring a stretch of hot weather for our area through the the 4th
July. The surface high is sitting off to our east and that will give
us southerly flow pushing our dew points into the mid to upper 70s.
Highs today will push into the low to mid 90s and once you factor in
the humidity it will feel 100 to 112. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for today and if you are outside especially between 10 am and 6 pm
you will want to take precautions to stay cool and remain hydrated.
A short wave trough will be pushing through the Great Lakes pushing
a cold front south. Most of the forcing with this front will remain
to our north but we could see a few scattered thunderstorms mainly
north of I-40 during the afternoon and evening. With the high dew
points we will see plenty of CAPE across the area (1500-2500+ j/kg).
Lapse rates are not great and shear is overall low, this will limit
the severe threat but gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible with
any thunderstorms. PWATs could be as highs as 2" and heavy rain can
be expected with any thunderstorms.

Overnight lows will remain warm tonight only falling into the mid to
upper 70s. This will bring limited relief to those without air
conditioning. Hot weather is expected again on Independence Day with
highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values as warm as 112.
The Heat Advisory has been extended into Thursday. If you have
outdoor plans during the day for the Holiday make sure you are
taking proper precautions from the heat and remaining hydrated. The
front will sag further south into our area as a stationary front and
will eventually lift north as a warm front. This will give us a
better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
area. The best chances will be during the afternoon and early
evening. It will once again be a high CAPE, low shear, poor lapse
rate environment. This will limit widespread severe weather but with
that amount of CAPE gusty winds will be possible with any
thunderstorms along with heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level trough will be tracking through the Great Lakes on
Friday and this will push a cold front through our area. We can
expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with this front. Once
again widespread severe weather is not expected but gusty winds and
heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms. The cloud cover
and thunderstorms will keep things a bit cooler in the upper 80s to
lower 90s but it will remain very humid. Cooling behind the front
will be limited but you will notice the lower dew points with them
falling back into the 60s. Things should stay dry over the weekend
but troughing will develop over the Great Lakes early next week and
that will bring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for us. It
will also start to become more humid again on Monday with dew points
pushing back above 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions expected at all sites this period. Scattered to
broken cumulus are forecast to develop throughout the day today.
Showers and a few storms may approach CKV, but activity looks to
be too isolated to mention in the taf. South winds will increase
throughout the afternoon and then subside overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  78  96  77 /  10  10  70  40
Clarksville    95  76  92  74 /  20  30  80  50
Crossville     89  70  89  70 /  10  10  60  40
Columbia       97  76  96  75 /  10  10  60  40
Cookeville     91  74  90  73 /  10  10  60  40
Jamestown      90  72  89  72 /  10  20  60  40
Lawrenceburg   95  75  95  74 /  10  10  50  30
Murfreesboro   97  76  97  75 /  10  10  60  40
Waverly        96  76  94  74 /  10  20  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead