071
FXUS64 KOHX 040542
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Per current regional radar mosaic trends, some isolated
showers/thunderstorms moving across locations approaching TN/KY
Border Region as these early evening hours have progressed in
association with an upper level shortwave moving initially slowly
eastward across mid state region. Believe potential of isolated
convection with continue through remainder of evening hours across
these locations. Slightly adjusted areal coverage of isolated
showers/thunderstorms through remainder of evening hours to
address this. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind
speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously
forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. Current regional
temperature trends continuing in line with forecasted overnight
low values. Although not depicting robust convective potential,
04/00Z KOHX sounding profile and associated derived indicies
depicting enough atmospheric instability and moisture potential to
reflect an atmosphere capable of supporting isolated convection.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

**Dangerously hot conditions today and 4th of July**
**Heat advisory in effect from 1 PM today through 7 PM Thursday**

Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 80s across most of
Middle Tennessee this morning with dew point temperatures in the
70s. This is setting the stage for a dangerously hot and
uncomfortable afternoon as heat index values are forecast to reach
into the 105-110 range. If you must be outdoors today, it is
encouraged that you stay hydrated, wear light clothing, and take
frequent breaks in order to prevent heat-related illness. The only
chance for a break in the heat is if any thunderstorms develop.
Rain and thunderstorm chances overall are quite low today as
storms will be more of the pop-up variety with a greater chance of
them occuring along and north of I-40. With the heat+humidity
combo, instability values will reach near 2000 J/kg this
afternoon, so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates and shear
values are overall low, thus limiting any widespread severe
potential.

For the 4th of July, heat will be the major concern. With the
combination of the air temperature in the mid 90s and humidity as
high as it is, heat index values are once again forecast to reach
into the 100-110 degree range during the afternoon. Rain and
thunderstorm chances do return tomorrow and will likely be more
widespread than today thanks to a front that will be stalling out
over the area. Still, though, the overall severe threat is limited
due to poor lapse rates and lower values of wind shear. Still
cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm, though. Any
stronger storms that do develop will have the potential to produce
frequent lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. So be
prepared to temporarily move indoors should a storm move over your
area tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Models continue to show the majority of thunderstorm activity
dwindling down to hardly anything after 7pm tomorrow night.
Hopefully this holds so evening outdoor plans can stay on. Rain
and thunderstorms will resume overnight ahead of a cold front that
will be trekking this way. Friday will likely be our rainiest day
as the cold front moves into the area. This is in response to a
deep upper-level low that will be moving across the Great Lakes.
We will get some relief from the oppressive heat, though, with
the rain and clouds. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper
80s. As we move into the weekend, the cold front will exit our
area Saturday morning, bringing a temporary end to the precip
through Sunday. While it will sill be hot, dew point temperatures
will thankfully be much cooler (near 10-15 degrees cooler than
right now), so the feel-like temperature will be very close to the
actual temperature, which will be near 90 degrees. With the
arrival of the new week comes a change in our upper-air pattern
that will bring us more favorable conditions for rain. This is
good news because we will be getting a break from the heat we`ve
been dealing with. Rain and thunderstorm chances are in each day
next week, but there is no severe potential at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all terminals. Scattered
storms are expected to develop later today. The best storm
potential will be during the afternoon, with CKV, BNA, and MQY
having the highest chance of seeing brief drops in visibility and
cigs due to storms. Activity is expected to taper off around 00z,
leaving VFR conditions overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  91  70 /  50  40  40  20
Clarksville    92  75  87  67 /  60  60  50  10
Crossville     90  71  87  65 /  40  40  60  60
Columbia       96  75  91  67 /  50  30  30  20
Cookeville     91  73  86  67 /  40  40  40  40
Jamestown      89  72  86  66 /  50  40  50  50
Lawrenceburg   96  75  90  68 /  40  30  30  30
Murfreesboro   97  76  92  69 /  50  40  40  30
Waverly        93  74  88  67 /  60  50  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead