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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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138 FXUS64 KOHX 040652 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Upper level ridge will start to flatten out today but we are still in for another hot one. Afternoon highs will push into the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values as highs as 110. If you have outdoor plans for the 4th you will want take precautions from the heat and make sure that you are staying hydrated. There are storms over KY early this morning, those will continue to push east staying to our north. There are additional storms to our northwest associated with a short wave trough. This complex of storms will push east through the morning and should make it to KY by the late morning early afternoon. Boundaries with this complex will help to kick off scattered thunderstorms for us for the afternoon and early evening. The best thunderstorm chances will be west of I-65. We will see plenty of CAPE but shear and lapse rates aren`t great, this will limit the severe potential. With the higher CAPE and PWATs as highs as 2.0" we still could see some gusty winds 40-60 mph with thunderstorms along with heavy rain. Most thunderstorm activity will diminish by 7 PM and we should see quiet weather for any firework shows but it will be hot and humid. Short wave trough will continue to push east tonight into Friday pushing a cold front into the region. This will bring another round of shower and thunderstorms starting just before daybreak in western areas. These thunderstorms will continue to push east through the morning. Depending on where the front is we may see some additional storms develop in eastern areas in the afternoon. Strong storms are unlikely on Friday but still can`t rule out isolated gusty winds. Heavy rain will continue to be likely with any thunderstorms. Most areas will get to around 90 on Friday and it will remain very humid. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Drier air will build in behind the front and we are looking at a nice weekend across Middle TN. Dew points will be falling into the 60s which will be a huge improvement from our current dew points. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For next week we will see ridging build to our east with troughing developing over the Great Lakes. This will bring the return of humid conditions with dew points pushing back above 70. We will also see shower and thunderstorm chances each day. The majority of the forcing will remain to our north and that will keep activity scattered and not widespread. Highs will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all terminals. Scattered storms are expected to develop later today. The best storm potential will be during the afternoon, with CKV, BNA, and MQY having the highest chance of seeing brief drops in visibility and cigs due to storms. Activity is expected to taper off around 00z, leaving VFR conditions overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 77 91 70 / 50 40 80 20 Clarksville 92 75 87 67 / 60 60 80 10 Crossville 90 71 87 65 / 40 40 80 60 Columbia 96 75 91 67 / 50 30 80 20 Cookeville 91 73 86 67 / 40 40 80 40 Jamestown 89 72 86 66 / 50 40 80 50 Lawrenceburg 96 75 90 68 / 40 30 80 30 Murfreesboro 97 76 92 69 / 50 40 80 30 Waverly 93 74 88 67 / 60 50 80 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Whitehead