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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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517 FXUS64 KOHX 021139 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 639 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Amazingly cool and comfortable night for early July across Middle Tennessee this morning with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Despite the cool start, the heat and humidity will be making a comeback today as an upper level ridge quickly builds over the Tennessee Valley and Gulf moisture returns from the south. Highs are anticipated to reach the low to mid 90s for most of the midstate with dewpoints rising back into the 60s to around 70. Wednesday looks even hotter and more humid as the center of the upper ridge settles just to our south, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints rising further into the low to mid 70s. This combo of heat and humidity will bring heat index readings up into the 105-110 range during the day, and a Heat Advisory will be needed for most of the midstate west of the Plateau. Thankfully, a few showers and storms are anticipated to pop up during the afternoon hours, which while isolated will help cool a few areas down. Forecast soundings show ample CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range on Wednesday afternoon, so could even be a strong or even marginally severe storm or two. SPC has highlighted our northern counties in a marginal risk for tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Another very hot and humid day is anticipated for July 4th with highs once again in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 70s. This should once again bring much of the midstate into the 105-110 heat index range during the day, and another Heat Advisory will likely be needed. However, the upper ridge will begin weakening on Thursday as a fairly strong upper low moves into the northern Plains and Midwest. This will allow for higher coverage, albeit still scattered,showers and storms during the day which will keep temperatures a bit cooler than Wednesday. Still appear most shower and storm activity will die down by evening, before increasing again late Thursday night into Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Friday looks to be the wettest day this forecast period thanks to the front, with latest NBM guidance showing likely to categorical pops. The higher rain coverage will also keep temps down with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Rain chances will decrease from north to south on Saturday as the front continues pushing through the region, with Sunday currently looking slightly cooler and dry. Much like yesterday, this brief cool dry period will be shortlived as the heat and humidity returns early next week along with increased shower and storm chances. However, latest 00Z guidance keeps an upper trough in place over much of the central and eastern US next week, which if it pans out would keep us less hot and rainier. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all sites. Winds will gradually increase to around 10 knots out of the south later this morning and remain that way for much of the period. Scattered cu are expected to develop this afternoon, but conditions will remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 77 98 78 / 0 0 20 20 Clarksville 93 75 95 76 / 0 0 30 30 Crossville 88 67 89 69 / 0 0 10 10 Columbia 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 10 Cookeville 89 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 10 Jamestown 88 69 90 72 / 0 0 10 20 Lawrenceburg 93 74 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 94 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 Waverly 94 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Whitehead