275
FXUS64 KOHX 081622
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1122 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Weak southerly flow has kicked in this morning and as advertised,
dew points have responded. Low 70s are being seen on the bottom left
of the plotted METARs across Middle TN. Pockets of sun are going to
continue to allow air temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s
this afternoon, but we are seeing some light rain showers on radar
this morning. While not currently widespread, they are offering some
brief relief from the heat. These showers will slowly translate to
the northeast through the afternoon hours, possibly becoming a
little more widespread as more light returns slip into Middle TN
from north MS and west TN. Rainfall totals should be less than a
tenth of an inch for anyone through this afternoon.

The big story in this forecast package continues to be the remnants
of Beryl and how they`ll affect the mid-state tomorrow. Latest
guidance suggests a slightly more northeasterly track to the surface
low and if you were with me yesterday, that was the one thing I was
looking for to increase a severe weather threat. While it`s still
not an incredibly high threat by any means, in an otherwise modestly
unstable environment, 40 kts of deep layer shear and 0-1km
helicities close to 100 would support some rotating storms. There
are a few things going against the severe threat. Mainly the
filling (weakening) of the surface low through the day tomorrow
and very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, in a quasi-tropical
environment, the lapse rates don`t usually prove to be all that
important. So, let`s call it from about 2 pm until 8 pm tomorrow,
areas west of I-65 will run a small chance of a quick spin-up
tornado. In addition to the very limited tornado risk, we`ll see
breezy conditions under the tightened pressure gradient and PWs
north of 2.0 inches will provide for very efficient rainfall in
any storm. Current WPC QPF shows less than an inch for any spot in
Middle TN. This is probably pretty spot on, but any training
could provide more than an inch. Bottom line, there are no
flooding concerns, but a garden or two might be thankful.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Beyond tomorrow, models continue to show dry conditions. This is
unfortunate as tomorrow`s rainfall will be pretty limited. If I
squint, I could see VERY isolated diurnal storm chances this
weekend, but I think the bulk of the forecast after tomorrow is
going to consist of (at best) 20 PoP on any given day and
increasingly warm temperatures with mid 90s making a return by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all Middle TN
terminals. An afternoon shower or storm can not be completely
ruled out at one of the terminals but the probability is too low
to include in the taf. Winds are expected to be 5 kts or less for
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  76  94  72 /  30  20  80  70
Clarksville    91  73  88  69 /  20  40  80  90
Crossville     90  69  88  69 /  30  10  70  40
Columbia       97  73  95  69 /  30  20  80  70
Cookeville     90  72  89  70 /  30  10  70  40
Jamestown      89  71  88  69 /  20  10  70  40
Lawrenceburg   95  73  93  70 /  30  20  80  70
Murfreesboro   97  74  95  72 /  30  20  70  50
Waverly        92  72  90  67 /  20  50  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan