873
FXUS64 KOHX 051628
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has exited Middle TN
at forecast time. A few of them became strong with a 40 mph wind
gust or two and lots of lightning, but for the most part, they
behaved themselves. A few showers remain in their wake and while
that`ll be the bulk of today`s activity for most, areas east of
I-65 aren`t quite out of the woods. CAMs have been suggesting
additional convective development this afternoon. Even with many
seeing storms already today, models have wanted to increase both
instability and shear values across the eastern half from about 1
pm until 6 pm. However, with additional cloud cover, this is
looking less likely for most of the area. Will focus some likely
PoPs on the far eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau, but there
is a chance that most afternoon development happens in East TN. If
we do get storms, with the addition of about 40 kts of bulk
shear, damaging gusty winds will be possible. Again, this is
looking less likely, but if you`re on the Cumberland Plateau and
have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky until about 6 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The weekend looks pretty good. The energy associated with today`s
storms will get south of us tonight and set up dry conditions
Saturday through most of Monday. Temperatures will warm a degree or
two each day with Monday being the warmest day of this forecast
package. Should stay below Head Advisory criteria, however. That
doesn`t mean it won`t be humid. The weekend should enjoy a little
break from the humidity, but 70+ dew points return on Monday.
(Insert little pukey face here).

By Monday night, as that heat and humidity has built back into the
area, showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast. A
couple of things will be going on. First, with the Bermuda high
slipping back over the Atlantic and a upper trough digging into
the region, this in and of itself would increase rain chances
across the area. It`s the second part that may very well be the
driver of a lot of rain across the mid-state: the remnants of
Beryl. Hurricane Beryl is expected to make landfall near the
Texas/Mexico border Monday evening. Models aren`t in complete
agreement how much it will affect Middle TN, but there`s at least
some agreement we`ll get rain from it mid-week. Obviously, there`s
much to be worked out as far as the details, but this becomes a
good news-bad news scenario: yes, it`ll be cooler (upper 80s to 90
degrees), but it looks pretty wet. Hey, now that I think about
it, maybe it`s a good news-good news scenario. The gardens will be
happy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east
through 19z. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in this line of
thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will diminish by the
afternoon for western terminals but may linger through the
afternoon for eastern terminals. Patchy fog will be possible after
07z for eastern terminals. Light westerly winds becoming
northerly behind the line of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  71  92  70 /  70   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  67  88  67 /  80   0   0   0
Crossville     87  65  86  63 / 100  30  10  10
Columbia       92  68  91  68 /  70  10  10   0
Cookeville     86  67  85  65 / 100  20  10  10
Jamestown      86  66  84  64 / 100  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   92  68  90  67 /  50  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   92  69  92  67 /  40  10  10   0
Waverly        89  66  88  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller